On Saturday morning, Landon Donovan will board a bus at Goodison Park, the stadium at the top of the photo amid all the working class houses, and travel about a mile to Anfield, the stadium at the bottom of the photo amid all the working class houses.    Escorted by a phalanx of security, Donovan and his teammates will walk into Anfield and then, eventually through he tunnel, onto the field, and into an experience wholly new to Donovan.  No matter what happens for the rest of Landon Donovan’s career, no matter what happens in South Africa, no matter whether he returns to the Galaxy or stays in Europe, the following two hours will be among the most memorable he will ever have.

Of all the great European derbies, there are few that can compare to the Merseyside clash.  The Old Firm game in Scotland may be rooted in religious rivalry and for a half century the Barca-Real battle in Spain stood in for the civil war after the bullets stopped flying.  However, it is the proximity of the Merseyside battle that drives the vitriol.  For these two teams, separated by only a park, a cemetery, and 100 years of hate, this game can often define the value of their whole season. 

Part of what makes this Derby so powerful is the sound.  Both Anfield and Goodison are relatively small, confined stadiums.  The crowd at Anfield is right on top of the action, and the noise reverberates around the stadium like shaken pennies in glass jar.  For a normal Liverpool game against some random opponent, Anfield is one of the loudest stadia in the land.  For the Merseyside game, noise is taken to an entirely new level.  The noise at Anfield has feeling.  You can sense it in your chest.  When Donovan takes a cornerkick, he will be taking it while leaning against a wall of sound.  To the extent he will be able to make out anything specific, the dialog would make a pornographer blush.

Ultimately, it is these types of experiences that will make his loan to Everton so valuable to Donovan.  Playing with great players, against great players in an electrified atmosphere is something that you cannot get in 2010’s MLS.  Maybe one day, but not today.  To the extent that Landon under-performed in the World Cup four years ago, one of the reasons why is that he did not have enough experiences like the Merseyside Derby. 

The games Donovan has played against Mexico are passionate, but really do not compare to a Liverpool/Everton match up.  Ultimately, both Mexico and the US have always known that no matter the result, they were both going to qualify for the World Cup.  Beating Mexico is fun mostly because it is so galling to the Mexicans.  Losing to Mexico is always disappointing, but rarely devastating.  What Donovan will experience on Saturday is of a completely different nature.  The fans on both sides are so emotionally committed to the game that they hold nothing in reserve to cushion the blow should they lose. 

For us west-coasters, we are looking at a 4:30 am kick-off on Saturday.  My advice – set your alarm.  With ESPN2 broadcasting the game in HD, it is time to wall –off the TV room, turn the volume up, and let the action wipe the sleep from your eyes.  You rarely get to see a game like this with an American playing a position other than ‘keeper.  It should not be missed.

As Landon Donovan settles into the Everton, Michael Bradley becomes even more a fixture at the Bundesliga, and Stuart Holden and Ricardo Clark leave the US and take big career risks to fight for a position on European teams, many American fans are bemoaning the fate of the MLS. What if all our stars go to Europe? What if the MLS becomes just a developmental league for European teams?

It may be counter-intuitive, and perhaps a little heretical, but soccer in America, and MLS in particular, can thrive as an exporter of quality domestic talent.

As I have said before, there are plenty of great soccer nations that export all their quality players and yet command a fervent following from their fans. Nearly every great Dutch player plays outside of Holland, and that does not make the Ajax fans walk around bemoaning the state of their league. The majority of the Argentina national team plays in Europe, and the River vs. Boca Super Classico in Buenos Aires makes the Galaxy/Chivas Superclassico look like a garden party. And of course, there is not a single member of the Brazil starting XI who plays for a Brazilian club team (with the possible exception of the newly outcast Robinho), but there are still over 400 teams in the Brazilian Football Confederation.

For the casual US soccer fan, they need to know MLS is not some rinky-dink outfit full of future high-school soccer coaches and European geriatrics. Nothing affirms the quality of our domestic league like watching our players be able to compete in the best leagues of Europe. As Donovan, Bradley, Clint Dempsey, and Tim Howard move from MLS, lock down starting XI positions and square off on a weekly basis against the best talents in the world, casual fans begin to accept the product put out by MLS as worthy of their attention and support.

The more talent we export, or more precisely, the more MLS talent is craved in Europe, the more esteem MLS will garner among US fans. As US players head off to Europe, US soccer fans are affirmed in their decision to follow the teams that can create that type of quality. As the US fans learn, through the experiences of our US players, about the culture and atmosphere of European soccer teams, they will want to replicate that atmosphere here with our domestic league.

Most importantly, the success of soccer in America has far more to do with the success of the US National Team than it does Major League Soccer. Do you want to see full MLS stadiums this summer and fall? If the US team has a decent run in South Africa, it will make a MLS ticket one of the hottest tickets in town. For the US to do well in South Africa, its best player must spend a lot of time in Europe playing against the best the world has to offer. I don’t think anyone seriously argues with that (if you do, I have the US/Honduras game from last month featuring a mostly MLS team on my Tivo to show you). Will Donovan, Clark and Holden be better players this summer after their European experiences? There is little doubt they will be.

Sometime in the coming years, the US will hopefully produce a truly world class outfield player – a player who may start in MLS, but will go on to play an important role for one of the great teams of Europe. The moment when some US player takes off their Kansas City Wizards or Columbus Crew uniform and puts on their Real Madrid or Manchester United kit will be one of the great moments in MLS history – the moment when the MLS will have truly arrived as a great league worthy of the casual sports fans’ attention.

Some random thoughts on the US win and the upcoming game against Costa Rica

The Greatest US Win I Have Never Seen.   A lot has already been said about how absurd it was that this game was not broadcast to the average US fan, so there is no reason to continue to beat this dead horse.  Beyond the television rights, Grant Wahl’s twitter on the game failed to tweet, the ussoccer.com twitter was intermittent at best and their Match Tracker did not work at all (at least for me), so switching between the New York Times Goal! update and Ives Galarcep’s running update was the best I could do.  It was easier to get information about North Korea’s political divisions than it was to figure out what was going on in the game.

Last night’s win was as impressive as the win against Spain in South Africa.  There are a lot of ways to hedge the win against Spain – it was in a neutral stadium, the Spanish took us for granted, it was as much a holiday as a tournament for Spain, etc.  There are no qualifications needed for what happened last night.  The stadium was absolutely rockin (check out Ives’ Youtube from three hours before the game began http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5C8mh-Vhrw).  Honduras had absolutely everything to play for.  We went a goal down at the same time that we knew Costa Rica was ahead and going to get three points.  Nevertheless, the US stepped up and won the game.  And yes, it was lucky that Pavon put the PK over the bar, but no less unlucky than that Holden had a completely fluky handball to set up the PK. 

Is Connor Casey the next Jozy Altidore or the next Eddie Johnson?  Many fans, including myself, were flummoxed to see Connor Casey in the starting lineup in place of Jozy Altidore or Brian Ching.  I guess that is one of several thousand reasons why Bob Bradley is the coach and I am not.  Nevertheless, one game does make a regular US National.  Remember Steve Ralston’s goal against Mexico last qualifying round?   Remember the great run that Johnson had in qualifications for 2006?  Neither do I.  I would suspect that Casey has gotten himself a ticket to South Africa, but I am not convinced he has a place in our starting XI.  I hope that Jozy plays Wednesday against Costa Rica because he should be playing like a man with something to prove.  In fact…

The entire team has something to prove against Costa Rica.  Our worst loss this year was not the Gold Cup final, which came with a boatload of “what ifs.”  It was the 3-1 loss against Costa Rica at Saprissa in June.  The 3-1 score line flattered the US as Costa Rica dominated the game from the beginning to the end.  The US was not just out-played but also out-competed.  Additionally, if we beat Costa Rica, we will have won the Concacaf hex, and….

Winning the Concacaf hex is far more impressive than any hex win in the European qualifying.  For all the talk about the minnows in Concacaf, the truth is winning the Concacaf hex is far more difficult than anything Spain, Italy, England or Germany or any other European team had to do to qualify for South Africa.  None of those teams had a road game that compares with going to Azteca, Saprissa or last night’s games at San Pedro Sula.  There are no Montenegros, Faroe Islands, Andorras or Liechtensteins in the Concacaf hex.  In fact, the worst team in our hex, Trinidad and Tobago, is probably better than the worst 10 teams in the European qualification.  Reigning champion Italy has qualified with six wins in its nine games (just like the US), but Italy has had to play Ireland, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Montenegro and Georgia.  Did you know that Cyprus had 1,100 people show up for one of their WCQ games?  All those Euro football snobs can go stick it.  If the US wins the Concacaf, it will be a fantastic achievement.

MLS in the US – Who Cares?

As I was finishing writing this post, I read Kartik’s post on “Invisible MLS” and thought the timing couldn’t be better. Here’s my recent experience …

I’ve just returned from a trip across the country to visit friends and family and spread the good word about Major League Soccer. The reaction… not many care.

From my nephew, an athletic trainer for a New Jersey high school, to a barfly in Washington, DC, the feedback was the same, as in, there was no feedback. My nephew’s comments ran along these lines…

If the players are striving to be the best, and the best play in Europe, why is there an American league?

From the barfly, a DC sports fan, who upon being told that I was a soccer fan replied…

Well, I don’t understand why, but that’s your choice.

And these were pretty typical of the responses I received when speaking of the beautiful game.

My trip took me through Dallas, Chicago, Newark, Philadelphia and DC. In none of the train stations could I purchase any soccer related souvenirs. Local baseball, basketball, hockey and football team caps and t-shirts were available, but not one whiff of a DC United shirt or Chicago Fire cap could be found. Nor could I purchase a Philadephia Union cap while in a suburb of the City of Brotherly Love, much less in the train station.

I was in DC the morning after they qualified for the group phase of the CONCACAF Champions League. I had four, count ‘em, four DC papers in my hands and not one mention of United’s victory. In fact, not one mention of the match at all.

No surprise then that 4 of the 5 cities I’ve mentioned are drawing more on the road than at home; DC United being the exception.

The flip side is what people are calling MLS 2.0, with Toronto and Seattle in the forefront. We can only hope that future MLS cities, beginning with Philadelphia and Vancouver continue the 2.0 trend.

In fact, of the top 6 clubs in average attendance, the only charter franchise in the group is Los Angeles(not counting the relocated Houston team as a charter member, although in the strictest sense, the franchise is indeed a charter member). And sitting at number seven is the second San Jose incarnation.

Bringing more fans to MLS

Ben Berger at Footiebusiness.com recently posted this series on improving MLS visibility in the US.

Bringing the Fans to MLS: Part I-The Non-Soccer Fan

Bringing the Fans to MLS: Part II- Families

Bringing the Fans to MLS: Part III-Soccer Fans

RBNY – Just How Bad Are They?

Home attendance is especially no surprise for RBNY. If they continue on their current pace, no team in the EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Serie A or La Liga will have won a lower percentage of its games(9.1%) or lost a greater percentage of its games(72.7%).

Who is the real target demographic of professional soccer in the U.S.? Is it Soccer Moms?  Is it Soccer players?  Is it Latino people?

Sure, Soccer Moms, Latinos and Soccer players make up some of the peripheral targets, but who makes up the core target?

One U.S. pro soccer fan thinks he’s the core target demo.  He’s 41 and 1/2 years old and had been a consistent fan of the big 3, football, basketball and baseball his whole life, until recently.  As a new Soccer fan and not having been a soccer player for more than 20 years, he watches snippets of world soccer leagues, but does not go out of his way to find them.  He doesn’t have Fox Soccer Channel to watch at home, though he wonders what life would be like with it.  He doesn’t own a soccer scarf and has no plans to purchase one.   

He supports Obama and likes to talk politics, but does not consider himself a Republican or Democrat.  He doesn’t tweet yet, but has recently investigated Facebook as a possible hobby.  He likes Spanish music a lot, but does not like watching American Idol or Dancing with the Stars.  He has attended one women’s Roller Derby and one Lucha Libre and only watches short stints of MMA, but he is ready to watch American Soccer every night of the week.

He only glances briefly at NASCAR, but loved Talladega Nights with Will Ferrell.  He wants to know a little more about Lacrosse and Cricket, but not too much.  He likes to watch and play Tennis a lot, but only can take small doses of watching or playing golf.  He likes to spend time with his wife and kid and wishes he had season tickets for a professional soccer team in his area.

He likes to travel, but does not like to get too involved in popular culture.  He is college educated, but thinks college is overrated.  He likes movies based on a true story, but really liked ‘Oh Brother, Where art Thou?.’  More than anything, he is really sick and tired of the big 3 sports and is trying to wean himself off of them.

He refuses to succumb to the word ‘pitch’ to replace the word ‘field’ and still hasn’t seen ‘Bend it Like Beckham’, but he did really enjoy the documentary on the NASL Cosmos, even though he’s not old enough to remember too much about the league.  He also refuses to succumb to the abbreviation FC or nicknames like Chivas and Real, which seem foreign and pretentious.  He’s looking forward to an old name coming back, Rowdies.  He gets confused by all the different cup competitions and would rather see a longer regular season of professional U.S. Soccer.

His socioecomoic status is middle class, but he relates well to all classes; middle, middle-upper, middle-lower, upper and lower.  He lives in an apartment and his wife keeps pushing him to buy a house.  His work fluctuates, which is another reason he needs a stable, semi-daily American Soccer league, so he can get away from all of his work problems. 

Above all, he considers himself a U.S. sports fan, who deals daily with his disenchantment for baseball, football and basketball.  He looks forward to the day he can go to a franchise restaurant where the volume is up on a U.S. pro Soccer league match like it sometimes is on the big 3.

With the release of the United Soccer Leagues 2009 D1 schedule and accompanying Fox Soccer Channel tv schedule, USL shows once again that MLS is not the only game in town.  USL proves again that it carries a lot of weight when it comes to professional soccer in the U.S.  The USL infrastructure is strong enough to continue to be a thorn in the side of MLS.  It has major partnerships with European clubs, its own youth and development leagues and a Women’s league.  

Unfortunately, the USL at the professional soccer level, has a lack of innovation and leadership.  There’s no backbone and no guts.  It has the same losing business model as MLS.  It suffers from an identity crisis, just as MLS does.

The key statistics to follow this year will be the same as it has been for every year that MLS and USL have been existence, attendance and television ratings.  The next significant key statistic to follow is how many goals are scored per game (Offense brings sports fans in the U.S.).

In order for one of the leagues to stand out and become mainstream, they must solve the puzzle.  It is the greatest sports conundrum in the history of modern American sports, why can’t soccer make it in America? 

The pot of gold is out there, it is buried at the end of the rainbow, but the rainbow is multi-layered and multi-dimensional.  MLS and USL will never be able to count on what’s happening with soccer leagues everywhere else around the world to be able to discover the treasure.  They must figure out how to market soccer, the beautiful game, to American sports fans and not just soccer purists and/or soccer enthusiasts.

The most interesting stories to follow from USL and MLS are its business dealings.  Both leagues are so lost in what direction they want to go.  There is intrigue involved at every corner of every new stadium being built, both the small ones and the bigger ones.  Sometimes, the strategies involved with play calling, coaching and watching games does not match the intrigue and strategies involved with which developing soccer areas of D2 and Premier of USL are next to breakout and become new soccer havens. 

Who will be this year’s Cleveland City? and What will be the next small city to emerge as having the label of a pro soccer city, like Austin?

To its credit, the USL’s D1 is hanging around.  Even as it struggles for its survival, it deserves to get attention when it makes news.  Today it made news and showed all of the U.S. soccer fans that it will maintain an appropriate schedule.  With its organizational strength, the USL is indicating a commitment to provide a high level of pro soccer for fans in North America and the Carribean to enjoy. 

USL and its teams have worked hard in recent years to gather business sponsorships and marketing parterships with major and minor companies.  It has also made tremendous leaps on the international stage and in the U.S. through its participation in sanctioned pro and open league tournaments. 

USL has earned a right to be mentioned in the same breath as MLS.  It’s too bad that what USL is inhaling is the same kind of poison that MLS is swallowing.  The lifespan of these leagues is hanging in the balance. 

USL is trying to put a veil over the real issues, just as MLS is doing.  New ideas must replace the stale ones if soccer wants the big piece of the sports action in the U.S.

In early August of 2006, it was announced that ESPN had paid for the rights to broadcast MLS.  At the announcement, officials from both sides agreed that ESPN would brand MLS with all the glory that its broadcasting style conveys to U.S. sports fans.   But, another MLS season has come and gone and except for the soccer purists, it has passed without much fanfare once again. 

There are 6 seasons left on the contract with ESPN.  These next 6 seasons, ending in 2014, should be the indicator for success or failure.  ESPN will not renew the contract if it is a failing product. 

ESPN is the giant in sports broadcasting and will not go forward with MLS unless the future is solid.  The one caveat to add to what happens in 2014 would be if ESPN makes a bid to buy a majority stake in MLS (as it did with Arena Football, though it was a minority stake).  This would only happen if ESPN spotted an opportunity in which they felt that they could take the sport farther along on their own without MLS executives calling the shots.  It then becomes a situation where ESPN feels they know the sporting public’s interests better than MLS.

MLS must look deeper into itself if it wants to gain the respect of mainstream U.S. sports fans.  MLS executives and those with deep ties to MLS like to put a happy face on for the public when it comes to talking about the growth of the sport in the U.S., but it is hard to tell what is the true status of the sport.

There are obvious positive things to say when comparing the sport to what it was 13 years ago before its inaugural season.  There are soccer-specific stadiums.  Soccer is seen much more on television.  There are more fans of soccer now in the U.S. and there are more franchises on the MLS waiting list.  

But, how much more time does the league need before it will make a major impact on the U.S. sports landscape? And, how will this economical recession the U.S. is in effect the league’s progress? 

With the stock market the way it is now, it is hard to trust what anyone has to say about financials.  It seems that 2 accountants could look at the MLS books and come up with 2 different outlooks.  So, what is the truth about the financials of MLS?  How many years can MLS afford to languish as a cellar dweller with U.S. sports fans, yet have its franchises worth 40 million some odd dollars? 

The most important relationship for MLS to cultivate is the one with ESPN.  The relationship does not appear to be as strong as it should be.  The relationship needs work.  MLS should be listening more to ESPN’s feedback. 

ESPN bought into the relationship to broaden soccer’s appeal nationwide and make money for its network.  It has done this for nearly every sport that it has acquired broadcasting rights.

Is MLS about making money or about gaining respect around the world?  

Is MLS making a profit at this point?  It probably would depend on which accountant you believe. 

The most popular reason that U.S. sports fans give for not watching soccer is its lack of scoring.  In order to attract more fans, a professional soccer league in the U.S. must, above all things, try to create more offense. 

Though many fans of the sport appreciate the skills, the passing, the midfield game and all the other aspects that make soccer ‘the beautiful game’, in the end, a league can not have success unless it concentrates on giving sports fans the opportunity to see more goals.  This is soccer’s reality and its dilemma in the U.S. 

For soccer purists and enthusiasts, a scoreless game late in the 2nd half is dramatic, tense and edge of the seat entertainment.  But, in order for U.S. sports fans to have similar feelings, they must first experience the offensive passion of the game. 

Fans will only get acclimated after seeing lots and lots of scoring.  After fans have been acclimated to soccer in all its wonder and glory, they too will find the awesome feeling of waiting for that first goal that doesn’t happen till extra time of the 2nd half. 

The average score for the other major team spectator sports are all higher.  Basketball is the exception because scoring happens frequently minute to minute.  But, for the other three, scoring is not elusive and is somewhat regular in its occurrence.  In baseball, runs are scored at more than 8 a game.  In hockey, goals are close to 6 a game.

Of all the team spectator sports, football (American) is the most interesting to analyze because of its unique system for scoring.  An average professional football game scores between 40 to 42 points.  Because an extra point after a touchdown is hardly ever missed and safeties in football are rarely seen, it is important to calculate exactly what fans are witnessing.  By using a formula that considers 1 point for a touchdown and half a point for a field goal, football is producing 6 points per game.   

Professional soccer around the world is averaging between 2-3 goals per game.  The American sports fans will never accept only 2-3 goals per game as an average.  Scoring must increase in order to get U.S. sports fans to the soccer dinner table.  According to how other major spectator sports in the U.S. are functioning, it appears that 5-7 goals a game is necessary to get the attention needed in order to be mainstream and part of the professional sports landscape in America.

The recent match between the U.S. and Cuba battling for a spot to the 2010 World Cup was a prime example of why soccer must revise its rule involving red-cards.  Expulsion from the game for a heinous foul is not the problem.  If the foul warrants expulsion, the referee should make the call.  What happens after the player is dismissed from the game is not what U.S. sports fans want to see from professional soccer.

U.S. sports fans expect the player to be fined and suspended for more games.  But, for the game being played at that moment, sports fans want to see another player take the suspended player’s place on the field.  There is too much invested in the game for it to become a laughing affair, as the match last night did.

Soccer purists, of course, will disagree, and they will try to cite the occasions when the team down a player was able to come back and either win or tie the game.  But, this occurs infrequently.

The problem is that the rule is set up to punish not just the player and his/her team, but, also the fans. 

It was big, bad U.S. vs. small, socialist Cuba.  The match-up was an attractive one.  The drama was both surreal and potent.  The outcome was unpredictable. 

The score was 2-1 late in the first half when the referee made the debatable and controversial call.  The remainder of the game was played with 11 players vs. 10 players.  The final score was 6-1.  

As professional soccer develops in the U.S., it must revise the red-card rule to reflect the best interests of sports fans.  U.S. sports fans will not tolerate watching deliberate mismatches.  It is not fair to penalize the fan.  The ultimate competition is an even match among players, eleven on eleven.

As the economy weakens, U.S. professional soccer must consider all peripheral factors that influence how sports fans see the beautiful game.  After having planned a day at the stadium, and having paid for gas, parking, tickets and refreshments, fans would rather see a fair outcome, even when the advantage of the expulsion is in favor of the home team and goes against the opposition.  The same can be said for fans watching on television. 

No one wants to see an expulsion because it changes the complexion of the game.  Whether it is 10 minutes after the start, or with 10 minutes remaining to be played, a red-card ruins the synergy that is created from the beauty of the game.  An expulsion sucks the energy from the fan and diminishes the result. 

In many instances when the red-card comes out, it is a questionable call.  By revising the rule, professional soccer in the U.S. alleviates the possibility of the red-card being a major issue (There can always be controversy surrounding the expulsion of a particular player who may never re-enter the game).  But, from a fan’s perspective, minimally speaking, at least it can always remain eleven players vs. eleven players.  If the player that committed the foul is, upon further review, after completion of the game, deemed to have not made such a severe penalty, then his/her suspension and fine should be reversed.