Some random thoughts on the US win and the upcoming game against Costa Rica

The Greatest US Win I Have Never Seen.   A lot has already been said about how absurd it was that this game was not broadcast to the average US fan, so there is no reason to continue to beat this dead horse.  Beyond the television rights, Grant Wahl’s twitter on the game failed to tweet, the ussoccer.com twitter was intermittent at best and their Match Tracker did not work at all (at least for me), so switching between the New York Times Goal! update and Ives Galarcep’s running update was the best I could do.  It was easier to get information about North Korea’s political divisions than it was to figure out what was going on in the game.

Last night’s win was as impressive as the win against Spain in South Africa.  There are a lot of ways to hedge the win against Spain – it was in a neutral stadium, the Spanish took us for granted, it was as much a holiday as a tournament for Spain, etc.  There are no qualifications needed for what happened last night.  The stadium was absolutely rockin (check out Ives’ Youtube from three hours before the game began http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5C8mh-Vhrw).  Honduras had absolutely everything to play for.  We went a goal down at the same time that we knew Costa Rica was ahead and going to get three points.  Nevertheless, the US stepped up and won the game.  And yes, it was lucky that Pavon put the PK over the bar, but no less unlucky than that Holden had a completely fluky handball to set up the PK. 

Is Connor Casey the next Jozy Altidore or the next Eddie Johnson?  Many fans, including myself, were flummoxed to see Connor Casey in the starting lineup in place of Jozy Altidore or Brian Ching.  I guess that is one of several thousand reasons why Bob Bradley is the coach and I am not.  Nevertheless, one game does make a regular US National.  Remember Steve Ralston’s goal against Mexico last qualifying round?   Remember the great run that Johnson had in qualifications for 2006?  Neither do I.  I would suspect that Casey has gotten himself a ticket to South Africa, but I am not convinced he has a place in our starting XI.  I hope that Jozy plays Wednesday against Costa Rica because he should be playing like a man with something to prove.  In fact…

The entire team has something to prove against Costa Rica.  Our worst loss this year was not the Gold Cup final, which came with a boatload of “what ifs.”  It was the 3-1 loss against Costa Rica at Saprissa in June.  The 3-1 score line flattered the US as Costa Rica dominated the game from the beginning to the end.  The US was not just out-played but also out-competed.  Additionally, if we beat Costa Rica, we will have won the Concacaf hex, and….

Winning the Concacaf hex is far more impressive than any hex win in the European qualifying.  For all the talk about the minnows in Concacaf, the truth is winning the Concacaf hex is far more difficult than anything Spain, Italy, England or Germany or any other European team had to do to qualify for South Africa.  None of those teams had a road game that compares with going to Azteca, Saprissa or last night’s games at San Pedro Sula.  There are no Montenegros, Faroe Islands, Andorras or Liechtensteins in the Concacaf hex.  In fact, the worst team in our hex, Trinidad and Tobago, is probably better than the worst 10 teams in the European qualification.  Reigning champion Italy has qualified with six wins in its nine games (just like the US), but Italy has had to play Ireland, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Montenegro and Georgia.  Did you know that Cyprus had 1,100 people show up for one of their WCQ games?  All those Euro football snobs can go stick it.  If the US wins the Concacaf, it will be a fantastic achievement.

Who is the real target demographic of professional soccer in the U.S.? Is it Soccer Moms?  Is it Soccer players?  Is it Latino people?

Sure, Soccer Moms, Latinos and Soccer players make up some of the peripheral targets, but who makes up the core target?

One U.S. pro soccer fan thinks he’s the core target demo.  He’s 41 and 1/2 years old and had been a consistent fan of the big 3, football, basketball and baseball his whole life, until recently.  As a new Soccer fan and not having been a soccer player for more than 20 years, he watches snippets of world soccer leagues, but does not go out of his way to find them.  He doesn’t have Fox Soccer Channel to watch at home, though he wonders what life would be like with it.  He doesn’t own a soccer scarf and has no plans to purchase one.   

He supports Obama and likes to talk politics, but does not consider himself a Republican or Democrat.  He doesn’t tweet yet, but has recently investigated Facebook as a possible hobby.  He likes Spanish music a lot, but does not like watching American Idol or Dancing with the Stars.  He has attended one women’s Roller Derby and one Lucha Libre and only watches short stints of MMA, but he is ready to watch American Soccer every night of the week.

He only glances briefly at NASCAR, but loved Talladega Nights with Will Ferrell.  He wants to know a little more about Lacrosse and Cricket, but not too much.  He likes to watch and play Tennis a lot, but only can take small doses of watching or playing golf.  He likes to spend time with his wife and kid and wishes he had season tickets for a professional soccer team in his area.

He likes to travel, but does not like to get too involved in popular culture.  He is college educated, but thinks college is overrated.  He likes movies based on a true story, but really liked ‘Oh Brother, Where art Thou?.’  More than anything, he is really sick and tired of the big 3 sports and is trying to wean himself off of them.

He refuses to succumb to the word ‘pitch’ to replace the word ‘field’ and still hasn’t seen ‘Bend it Like Beckham’, but he did really enjoy the documentary on the NASL Cosmos, even though he’s not old enough to remember too much about the league.  He also refuses to succumb to the abbreviation FC or nicknames like Chivas and Real, which seem foreign and pretentious.  He’s looking forward to an old name coming back, Rowdies.  He gets confused by all the different cup competitions and would rather see a longer regular season of professional U.S. Soccer.

His socioecomoic status is middle class, but he relates well to all classes; middle, middle-upper, middle-lower, upper and lower.  He lives in an apartment and his wife keeps pushing him to buy a house.  His work fluctuates, which is another reason he needs a stable, semi-daily American Soccer league, so he can get away from all of his work problems. 

Above all, he considers himself a U.S. sports fan, who deals daily with his disenchantment for baseball, football and basketball.  He looks forward to the day he can go to a franchise restaurant where the volume is up on a U.S. pro Soccer league match like it sometimes is on the big 3.

In early August of 2006, it was announced that ESPN had paid for the rights to broadcast MLS.  At the announcement, officials from both sides agreed that ESPN would brand MLS with all the glory that its broadcasting style conveys to U.S. sports fans.   But, another MLS season has come and gone and except for the soccer purists, it has passed without much fanfare once again. 

There are 6 seasons left on the contract with ESPN.  These next 6 seasons, ending in 2014, should be the indicator for success or failure.  ESPN will not renew the contract if it is a failing product. 

ESPN is the giant in sports broadcasting and will not go forward with MLS unless the future is solid.  The one caveat to add to what happens in 2014 would be if ESPN makes a bid to buy a majority stake in MLS (as it did with Arena Football, though it was a minority stake).  This would only happen if ESPN spotted an opportunity in which they felt that they could take the sport farther along on their own without MLS executives calling the shots.  It then becomes a situation where ESPN feels they know the sporting public’s interests better than MLS.

MLS must look deeper into itself if it wants to gain the respect of mainstream U.S. sports fans.  MLS executives and those with deep ties to MLS like to put a happy face on for the public when it comes to talking about the growth of the sport in the U.S., but it is hard to tell what is the true status of the sport.

There are obvious positive things to say when comparing the sport to what it was 13 years ago before its inaugural season.  There are soccer-specific stadiums.  Soccer is seen much more on television.  There are more fans of soccer now in the U.S. and there are more franchises on the MLS waiting list.  

But, how much more time does the league need before it will make a major impact on the U.S. sports landscape? And, how will this economical recession the U.S. is in effect the league’s progress? 

With the stock market the way it is now, it is hard to trust what anyone has to say about financials.  It seems that 2 accountants could look at the MLS books and come up with 2 different outlooks.  So, what is the truth about the financials of MLS?  How many years can MLS afford to languish as a cellar dweller with U.S. sports fans, yet have its franchises worth 40 million some odd dollars? 

The most important relationship for MLS to cultivate is the one with ESPN.  The relationship does not appear to be as strong as it should be.  The relationship needs work.  MLS should be listening more to ESPN’s feedback. 

ESPN bought into the relationship to broaden soccer’s appeal nationwide and make money for its network.  It has done this for nearly every sport that it has acquired broadcasting rights.

Is MLS about making money or about gaining respect around the world?  

Is MLS making a profit at this point?  It probably would depend on which accountant you believe.