If Sporting Kansas City’s season had a title, it would be “Night and Day”.  A tough start to the season, no doubt spurred on by the never-ending road trip, saw the team open Livestrong Park and use its great atmosphere to rocket to the top of the Eastern Conference.  Although they fell in the conference finals, the team has enough young players and talent that going into 2012, it has to be considered one of the favorites for the East.

So how can Sporting KC make this happen?  Here are “Three Questions” that will define how KC enters the new season:

1. Who replaces Omar Bravo?

With Bravo’s departure to Cruz Azul, Kansas City has two voids to fill, one that may be easier than the other.  The first is replacing the Mexican’s production, which in 2011 was nine goals and two assists.  While those are good numbers, Sporting had one of MLS’s most prolific offenses and the continued growth of players like Teal Bunbury and MLS Rookie of the Year CJ Sapong should replace those stats.  What may be missed even more is his leadership.  Bravo and Davy Arnaud split time as captains last season and both have left the team.  Who replaces that leadership on the field is critical to this team moving forward, something that may be harder with so many young players.  When the going gets tough, who will shoulder this team and carry them forward?  Bravo certainly did.

2. Does the team’s offseason turnover make them a better team?

For a team that made a conference finals, the amount of turnover this offseason has been incredible.  You can see the round-up of player moves here, but in essence the team got cheaper and younger.  In addition, the departures of Omar Bravo and Jeferson frees up two designated player slots that could be used to make a big-impact signing (maybe in the midfield?).  What has all of this shuffling brought them?  The team picked up veteran Bobby Convey from San Jose to replace Bravo and made a trade with Chivas USA to nab Pablo Nagamura, who potentially could play the holding midfield spot.  Their gamble leaving left back Seth Sinovic unprotected in the expansion draft led to the Davy Arnaud trade, which again freed up salary but lost them a veteran presence.  With potentially a bunch of new starters and first choice subs, will the new guys adequately replace the old ones?

3. Can the defense hold?

We know the team can score, and even next year with its departures this team will put up goals in bunches.  But can it stop opposing teams?  While KC had the second best goals allowed amount in the East, their 40 for the year would have put them fifth in the Western Conference (although their goal difference would have put them third).  As mentioned above, unless they use some of their money for a holding midfielder, that slot is going to Pablo Nagamura, who is an ok option to start but is injury prone.  Another player who may miss time on the pitch but due to disciplinary reasons is starting center back Aurelien Collins (he of the 9 yellow cards and one red last season).  This teams looks to be potentially a veteran defensive player signing away from having the back locked down and pushing this team to a higher level.

Poor New York Red Bulls.

In a season when it was all supposed to come together (young stars! established DPs! weak conference! newish stadium!) it all fell apart.  New York struggled all season and barely made the playoffs, defeating a floundering Dallas side before falling in the conference semi-finals.  The offseason has not been kind to them either, as player moves and front offices non-changes have left this team in a lurch.

As the title of this article insinuates, there are many, many questions floating around Red Bulls this offseason and for this “Three Questions” post we had to limit and condense what we are asking.  In the past, the prospect of a few new designated player signings (Eto’o! Anelka!) could calm everyone’s fears, but I am afraid even a shiny new toy may not mask some serious uncertainties in this club.

1. What is going to happen to the designated players?

As one of the few teams with a maximum number of designated players, the three New York DPs are a major part of this team already.  Considering where they play, however, their roles are magnified.  The team is already working on a new deal with keeper Frank Rost, who failed to dominate in his half season of play but was still an upgrade between the pipes for NY.  His situation needs to be settled so the team can either move on or check that position off.

Then there’s Thierry Henry, who looks to be going on a two month loan to Arsenal despite a few paperwork snags.  The team obviously does not want Henry to leave even for a short loan for two reasons.  First, he still has an intense love for his former club and Arsenal is one Chamakh/Van Persie extended absence away from needing a cheap, experienced forward for the rest of the season.  Second, Henry was instant offense for the club last season and any additional mileage on him could reduce his effectiveness (remember, his first MLS half-season was marred by injuries).  Even if he only stays for two months, will he still be as effective as 2011?

Then there’s Rafa Marquez, and why they haven’t transferred/released/lost their starting holding midfielder is a mystery to many of us.  He should be gone already due to his negative impact on the locker room, but his absence will leave a gap in the defense.

2. What is going to happen to the youths?

Juan Agudelo received less playing time than you’d expect for a national team starter, due to Hans Backe’s preferences and the solid play of the other New York forwards.  This offseason he has trained with Liverpool and Stuttgart, and the experience was positive for all parties.  One wonders if an exit is in his future as New York continued to put money into older DPs who will compete for playing time.

Then there’s Tim Ream who every week it seems like is being linked to another English side desperate for a cheap fix on defense.  This week it’s Bolton who are very very desperate for some help at, well, any position but especially center back.  Erik Soler has said Ream will not be leaving, but he also said Henry would not be going out on loan, so that is a situation to watch.  Losing one or both of these young players would be a major issue for the team.

3. What’s the plan?

The plan for the Red Bulls every year seems to be to rotate European talent in and out and hope for better results (which some define as insanity).  This year it is bringing in Markus Holgersson and possibly saying goodbye to Joel Lindpere.  Undoubtedly Holgersson will help a shaky backline and whoever the newest big name designated player is will help with the playoff hunt, but can this team continue to churn players and expect results?  Already, New York has used the most players in MLS history, and maybe that is Soler and Backe’s plan: churn through experienced players while using some young ones to find the right combination.

Is it the right one though, and will it work this offseason?  New York has a good youth academy that has contributed to the team, but compare their roster to FC Dallas (who we reviewed yesterday).  Both have young up-and-coming players, but Dallas is looking to theirs to provide key depth.  Time will tell which strategy is correct but it is telling that Dallas is considered a definite MLS Cup contender and New York’s season is up in the air.

The Columbus Crew were certainly a surprise team last season.  After cutting ties with a number of veterans and going with a roster that looked lacking on almost every part of the pitch, head coach Robert Warzycha coaxed a great season out of a sometimes combustible team.  Robbie Rogers earned his way onto the U.S. men’s national team with superior MLS play while Dilly Duka is now an up-and-coming talent.  The team was in the playoff hunt from April on and by playing stout defense combined with timely goal scoring, this was a team that played tough all year.  They even treated the fans to a historic MLS moment when Jeff Cunningham broke the record for most MLS goals in a career.

Going into this offseason, this again looks like a rebuilding effort.  But can the team meet or exceed the levels they achieved last season?  Let’s continue the “three questions” series with the Columbus Crew:

(Two notes.  First, we continue the series via the 2012 Superdraft selection order.  Columbus, despite a better record than New York, drafts tenth, followed by FC Dallas then Toronto.  The Reds have New York’s pick from the Dwayne De Rosario trade, but we’ll do the Red Bulls Three Questions after Dallas.  Second, the series will take a short break tomorrow and Sunday with a “12 Predictions for 2012″ post.  We’ll pick up with Dallas on Monday.)

1. What (or with whom) is the deal with Rogers and Ekpo?

In baseball, going one for three is a good day.  In MLS contract negotiations, it is a miserable failure.  The Crew offered a long-term deal to team leader Chad Marshall and he signed on the 19th.  This was a critical move to lock up one of MLS’s best defenders and one of the team’s two best players.  However, their contract offers to Emmanuel Ekpo and Robbie Rogers have yet to be accepted.  As of now, Rogers has been linked with English Championship side Leeds United but has not signed a deal.  Ekpo was left on the Crew’s unprotected list in the expansion draft and has allegedly been working on a loan deal to a European club.

Both of these players are critical components to this team, Rogers even more so than Ekpo.  Depending on how their fates come down will dictate how this team’s offseason goes.  Losing Ekpo but not Rogers would be a minor victory, but losing both could be devastating.

2. Clumbus

As in no “o”.  The Crew lost Andres Mendoza to the Mexican league and Jeff Cunningham was let go.  Mendoza was a locker room problem (see his hogging of penalty kicks) and the game has passed Cunningham by (his form was painful at times last season) but they both at least provided credible goal threats, Mendoza especially.  Combined with the possible departures of Rogers and Ekpo, this team has a gaping hole at the top.  Emilio Renteria returns but the only other forwards under contract with this team are either unproven no names (Meram, Horton) or depth players (Heinemann).  The Crew have to invest in replacements up top or risk having to over-rely on their defense.  Which leads me to…..

3. Is there a plan in the front office?

For the second winter, the Crew are in rebuilding mode, and the fans are unhappy.  After their impressive run in 2008 and 2009, there was no doubt this team could not be kept together.  But looking at this squad, what’s the plan?  Last season Warzycha was firmly on the hot seat but earned his way off.  Is he the Crew’s coach no matter what?  What if they get off to a slow start?  Also, the team has not publicly given a strategy for building in 2012.  They added depth on defense by acquiring Carlos Mendes but they look totally unprepared to lose their big-named players.  They need to give some indications as to whether they are rebuilding, retooling, or some other strategy.

Chicago ended the year as potentially the best non-playoff team in MLS.  They caught “fire” and had a winning record for the final third of the season, almost stealing the tenth playoff spot from New York.  The same team that set the MLS record for draws in a season (which they tied with NY) gave interim head coach Frank Klopas the full time job this offseason based on their excellent finish.  Dominic Oduro finally lived up to his promised to finish with double digit goals while newcomers Sebastian Grazzini and Pavel Pardo were veritable finds.  Looking forward to 2012, the team looks like it could make a jump in the standings if it can carry over the momentum.

What do the Fire need to do to make the playoffs in 2012?  Chicago is up next in our “3 Questions” series.

1. Who will Klopas bring back from his European scouting trip?

Frank Klopas made a highly-publicized trip to Europe a few weeks back to search for, in his words, a midfielder and a striker.  He was looking for another forward to pair up front with Dominic Oduro as well as build a working relationship with La Liga’s Atletico Madrid.  This is a critical trip, as his depth up front may be thinner than when he left.  Diego Chaves has been in the media saying that he wants out and, while he underperformed last season, he was at least a viable threat up front.  Israeli youngster Orr Barouch was signed away from his Israeli club but he is not yet an every day performer that the team needs to make that next step.  Patrick Nyarko is more of a wing player and not as much a compliment to Oduro.  Kheli Dube, selected in the Re-Entry Draft, is depth and not a full-time starter.

The rumors have been flying about potential names, and the name(s) Klopas can come up with will be critical to this team’s success.  If they can find another forward or CAM to fit Klopas’ system, this could be a very dangerous team.

2. Sean Johnson: will he be a better keeper for the Fire in December 2012 than he was in December 2011?

There are two parts to this question.  The first is: will Sean Johnson be with the Fire next year?  He’s training with Everton currently and, while the Toffees have a decent keeper you may have heard of, Johnson may catch the eye of a European club looking for a new long-term solution in net.  This is however the curse of an MLS team with young talent.

The bigger question is whether he takes the next step and becomes a dominant MLS keeper.  Like DC’s Bill Hamid, Johnson has all of the tools to be the next great keeper but needs to improve his decision-making and leadership.  With the call-up to the national team, he certainly will be able to train with the best America has to offer and should be a much more polished keeper this time next season.  At least Fire fans should hope so.

They have no choice.  Their back-up is Jay Nolly.

3. Can the Fire recreate the magic of August and September 2011?

Luck was a lady dating the Fire last year.  Oduro finally began converting those chances he created, and Nyarko and Barouch grew up.  The overseas midseason acquisitions performed as well as could be expected.  Even the interim coach who had never been a head coach at the MLS level before made all the right moves.  The question this offseason is can Chicago retain the magic that made that run possible.  Can they acquire the right players without upsetting the balance of personalities?

More importantly, can they keep the joyous play they maintained last season? After their shocking 2-1 victory at DC United last year, I went to the locker room to interview Frank Klopas, and the atmosphere went beyond happy about a win.  It was CYO level of fun, just plain joy with the game.  This joy, this fun with the game, is hard to maintain over a season but to capture a little of it at key times will help Chicago make a run in the playoffs.

This time last year, the San Jose Earthquakes were riding high.  They had upset the New York Red Bulls in the Eastern Conference playoffs and had seen the emergence of Chris Wondolowski as a bona fide goal scorer.  Although the team had definite weaknesses and was not at the level of, say, Real Salt Lake, this was certainly a team that could be a playoff contender.

The outlook could not be more different this year as opposed to last.  Wondo is still a goal scorer, tying Dwayne De Rosario for most goals scored this season, but his goals came in bunches and he was not a consistent threat.  There are question marks throughout the roster including whether the head coach will last through the upcoming season.  This is a team in flux, and if they fail to seriously contend for the playoffs this season we could see a massive roster overhaul this time next year (which arguably is a good thing).

Let’s limit ourselves to the key three questions that will tip the balance on San Jose’s 2012 season:

1. What is the status of Steven Lenhart?

We know he is signed.  He was a critical scoring option for the team last season, partnering well with Wondo to provide a second up-front scoring option for a team that at times desperately needed goals.  But the death of his father took him away from the game for an extended period of time, which coincided with their funk.

I personally will never judge someone for how they deal with the death of a parent, so I will simply say how he is mentally and physically fit for 2012 will be important for this team.  To be blunt, absent signing a big money striker, this team will fail without him.  As many goals as Wondo scores, he is inconsistent and cannot be relied upon to lead a team’s offense if that team is competing for a high-seed in the playoffs.  Lenhart is the perfect partner for him, and San Jose knows this.

2. Can the ‘Quakes run their way into the playoffs?

To address some of their issues from this past season, Frank Yallop is rebuilding his midfield around speed.  And not since Keanu Reeves tried to drive a bus has such a desire for going fast been so confusing.  San Jose made a great trade to bring Marvin Chavez over from Dallas but also this offseason they acquired Jean Alexandre from Real Salt Lake.  Alexandre has been a backup at RSL but has shown some flashes of being a productive midfielder if he gets regular playing time.  Undoubtedly Chavez is a great pickup but time will tell if Alexandre and their additional acquisitions this offseason can make them a faster team that can quickly get the ball up front to Wondo and Lenhart.

Looking at their depth as a whole, however, you wonder if these moves make sense.  In addition to the two players mentioned, the ‘Quakes have also picked up Shea Salinas while re-signing Khari Stephenson.  Looking at the current roster, it is composed of players who would be good depth players on a MLS Cup contender, not ones that can be counted on to drive a team to the Cup.  Maybe the new speed will change this.

3. Can the ‘Quakes count on Ike Opara?

The injured Opara was symbolic of the San Jose defense last season: underachieving and made worse by the loss of Brandon McDonald via trade to DC.  The once rising U.S. star was not even invited to Caleb Porter’s U-23 camp this offseason as he continues to recover from injury.  He was named an “honorable mention” for the MLS “24 under 24″ list but this could be a make or break season for him.  If he stays healthy and helps solidify a bad SJ defense, he will be back on track to be the next U.S. up-and-coming defender.  More injuries or sporadic play and we could be lamenting “what if”.

Chivas USA had a new head coach and a new system last season, but after a slow start the team looked to be set in neutral in the competitive Western Conference.  However, the acquisition of Juan Pablo Angel and a too late run at a playoff spot gave this team a bit of life and fans a reason for optimism.  As the club watched cross-town rivals the Galaxy celebrate with the MLS Cup in their stadium, the future looks mixed for the franchise.

Next up in our 3 Questions series is Chivas USA, a team who has not qualified for the playoffs in two years after a nice run of success to begin the franchise’s history.  Is next year the year when they begin a new streak?

1. Is management committed to this team?

The key to this question is who is making the personnel decisions.  Chivas decided to pass last season on every big name that came through the allocation process.  The speculation was that they were saving their powder for a big signing, and although they took on Juan Pablo Angel from the Galaxy, that big signing never came.  It may come this offseason, but the way the club has gone about building has been confusing.

This offseason so far has not settled those “cheap management” rumors.  Losing Zarek Valentin to Montreal in the expansion draft was very confusing considering that he is a young talent, but as noted here he was coming off his Generation Adidas and the team might have had to take on his entire contract.  If money is the deciding factor on player moves, management has to reconsider the business they are in or begin to realize that good players do cost money.

2. Will “breakouts” Kennedy and Angel carry over into 2012?

To call Juan Pablo Angel a “breakout” is a bit misleading, but Chivas fans haven’t seen that much of a revival since season one of The Walking Dead.  After being ineffective for the Galaxy, LA unloaded him on Chivas to make room for Robbie Keane.  Angel proceeded to score seven goals in nine appearances for the Goats.  Can he do the same in 2012?  First the team has to work out compensation: his New York-signed contract paying him $1 million is way too much, so he and the team have to come to an agreement.  This is even more critical considering Justin Braun was traded to the Impact.

The other shock of 2012 was keeper Dan Kennedy, who quietly put together one of the best seasons in MLS.  I remember seeing him play at DC United this summer and was incredibly impressed with his poise.  He has inked a new contract with the team so he will be set as the unquestioned starter in 2012.  But as a bright spot for the team last season, can he carry over his form in 2012?

3. Are the newcomers the key to success?

Like New England, Chivas has been replacing some of their departed players with MLS veterans.  The club grabbed Arturo Alvarez from RSL in the first stage of the re-entry draft and made trades for midfielder Ryan Smith (Sporting KC) and James Riley (Seattle/Montreal).  As I mentioned previously, it looks like there is help coming from overseas but again that is untested talent in MLS (although definitely it is talent).  You can argue that injuries and inconsistent play really hurt this team’s chances last year, but the acquisitions to this point don’t seem to address these issues.  But like the Revs maybe a few veterans will help with a playoff push.

In my 2011 season preview, I predicted that Toronto would struggle for the first few months under its newest leadership structure (new general manager and head coach) but toward the end of the year start to look like a promising team for 2012.  I had no clue that the amount of change they would undergo in a few short months: only two players would start both the first and last game of the season.  The 2012 version of Toronto FC is a new franchise personnel-wise, and I suspect we will see more changes over the next few months.

So is this team now good enough to make a playoff run this upcoming season?  Despite the infusion of  new talent, there are still many gaps that need to be addressed by this franchise.  To continue our series, below are three questions the team needs to address this offseason:

1. Are everyone’s expectations for the team realistic?

Off the pitch questions may overwhelm on the pitch questions this offseason.  In an interview with Alex Labidou, Toronto FC head coach Aron Winter bluntly stated that he would not be disappointed if his 2012 team does not make the playoffs: “We are focused on building something that will have progress not only in the playoffs”.  When you are doing a total rebuild that is the result of some really bad management in the first few years of your franchise’s MLS existence, this kind of attitude makes sense.  To be blunt, Toronto has lived too long off of the good will of its fans in a league where over 50% of teams make the playoffs.

However, the statement does ignore some realities that make this position untenable.  Rogers Communications, the Canadian media conglomerate that part-owns many sports franchises and properties in Toronto, recently bought a stake in the Reds.  Undoubtedly, this makes many fans salivate with the thought of corporate money being able to fund some player acquisitions.

The team is also the victim of its own success.  By advancing past the group stage of the CONCACAF Champions League plus ending the 2011 MLS season on a hot streak, the fans have seen that this team can have success against good opponents.  For the head coach and management to essentially say “let’s not get ahead of ourselves here” especially in light of gaffs like jacking up ticket prices a few years back, there could be a major division between the team itself and its fans.  Setting correct and manageable expectations for the team, players, and fans may define the success of this rebuild more than the on-the-field performance.

2. Is Julian de Guzman still part of the plan?

Dwayne De Rosario was quickly shipped from Toronto to New York to relieve a high-priced problem early in 2011.  Their other high-profile player was forced to shape up while new names were brought in that could compare to de Guzman’s stature.  As a result, de Guzman played better in 2011 and actually became an important part of the Toronto midfield.  However, he was left unprotected in the recent expansion draft, which while it may have been done strategically could send a signal to the player about his future in Toronto.

Undeniably Julian de Guzman is a very good player that can be a critical part of the Toronto attack.  However, with a rebuild overshadowing the team and he being the most visible sign of the old Toronto FC, does he have a role in Winter’s team?  Maybe more importantly, does he want one?

3. How close are they to the three year plan being completed?

This question ties somewhat to the first one, but how close is this team to reaching their goal of being a replenishing playoff contender?  Their 2011 acquisitions paid off big-time in many ways, with Danny Koevermans being their best acquisition by scoring loads of critical goals.  The other designated player acquisition Torsten Frings helped stabilize the midfield and young players like Ashtone Morgan and Joao Plata really shined under Winter.

However gaps do exist and how management chooses to fill these gaps will be a telling sign of how close they believe the three-year plan is to completion (a year early).  Their only big offseason acquisition so far has been Reggie Lambe, a winger who represents Jamaica Bermuda and played in England last season.  However, the team has not locked up Plata for another year (he’s on loan from Ecuador) and has not addressed some of their defensive issues (hello Andy Iro!).  Will they try and sign some established players, or just rely on the growing academy to fill in slots?  The answer may define how quickly this team makes a playoff run, if at all.

As our long-time readers know, MLS Talk likes to provide serious, well-thought out news analysis mixed with offbeat and laughable soccer-related thoughts.  This is the latter type of post.

Prior to First Kick 2011, the MLS Talk writers got together to give some predictions for the upcoming season.  At the time, we promised we’d resurrect the predictions to take credit for everything we got right.  Little did we know that such a post would only be about 1-2 sentences if actually written.  Regardless, as promised, here are our predictions for the 2011 season, and a little bit of analysis/defending from yours truly on the picks.  Feel free to post your wrong predictions (and correct ones) in the comments section.

The Final Standings

Prior to the season, it was common knowledge that RSL was the deepest team in the league and was thus primed to make a run at the Supporters Shield.  What we didn’t know was that their loss in the CONCACAF Champions League final and injuries would derail their season, in addition to improved LA and Seattle squads.  As such, only Kristan Heneage accurately predicted that Los Angeles would finish atop the Western Conference.  In fact, besides flip-flopping RSL and Seattle, he got the conference’s top five correct.

As for the Eastern Conference, the chaos that ensued was reflected in our picks.  We all got New York wrong as the Eastern Conference winner but at least they made the playoffs.  Earl Reed identified three teams correctly that made the playoffs from the East, but probably regrets picking DC to finish above Philadelphia.  Playoff picks are in bold.

Daniel Feuerstein

Earl Reed

Kristan Heneage

Robert Hay

MLS Cup Predictions

We were 0-4 on this one.  Earl and I picked Real Salt Lake to hoist the MLS Cup while Daniel thought Rafa Marquez would be showering Thierry Henry with champagne.  Kristan’s pick (DC United) didn’t make the playoffs.

Most Valuable Player

In our defense, while none of us correctly predicted this category, all of our picks were somewhat in the running toward the end of the year.  Daniel had Thierry Henry taking home the trophy while Earl and Kristan had Landon Donovan.  My pick made a late run but was still misguided: Alvaro Saborio.

The Golden Boot

Only Earl and I were ambitious enough to guess at this category, and my pick (Montero 12) edged his (Saborio 11).

Coach of the Year

Interestingly, none of us had a coach that was remotely in the running, although our picks by the end of the season were setting themselves up as candidates for next year.  All of our coach of the year selections were new MLS coaches, with Daniel seeing Toronto head man Aron Winter winning the award while Earl and I agreed upon DC United’s Ben Olsen.

Newcomer of the Year

Again, our picks were solid choices that for the most part contributed in some way but didn’t merit consideration.  Daniel went with Fabien Castillo of FC Dallas, Earl and I chose Omar Bravo for Sporting KC, and Kristan went with the right team  but wrong player (Erik Friberg of the Seattle Sounders).

Rookie of the Year

Well what can you say.  Who’d have thunk that C.J. Sapong would have played such a large roll for Sporting Kansas City?  Well we didn’t think he’d play a bigger role than Juan Agudelo (Daniel), Will Bruin (Earl and I), and Darlington Nagbe (Kristan).

Most Improved Player

Admittedly, this is one of the hardest categories to predict.  With so many players in the league, who will be the one who exceeds their previous year’s stats to be given an award?  Three of us thought that it would be someone from the Red Bulls: Kristan and Daniel thought that Dane Richards would be that player in 2011, while Earl picked Richards’ teammate Tim Ream.  However, the award for most laughable prediction for 2011 goes to me, and here is a direct quote from my prediction:

Since I wanted to show my Black-and-Red colors a little, I thought the player who would finally fulfill his promise would be D.C. United’s Branko Boskovic.

Anyone who has been looking for a new home understands the feeling of displacement that comes with it: the yearning for something new and different which you can model after your vision, while still feeling unsettled because you haven’t found that perfect place yet.  In June, MLS fans looked at Kansas City and either pitied or ignored them.  For a team who should have had Ricky Nelson sing its theme song, the season looked like a lost one.  Despite the new name and new logo, it was the same ol’ Kansas City, going from road game to road game trying to hang on until they could move into a new home.

Yet after last night’s 2-1 victory over Columbus, Sporting Kansas City sits atop the Eastern Conference.  With the Eastern Conference margin so narrow, their position may be tenuous (especially with DC and Philly having games in hand) but they are the in-form team in the East right now.  How did a team that looked so beaten early in the season rally to become maybe the favorite to win the top seed in the East?

The first place to look is last night’s game.  A few things stand out that point to reasons for their success.  The first is their suffocating offense, something that has been there all season but is really beginning to click.  Kei Kamara is an absolute weapon, and playing next to Omar Bravo in a 4-3-3 type formation allows him space to find his shot.  Teal Bunbury, who has struggled all year and is seemingly on the “outs” for the U.S. national team, is beginning to contribute in little ways and refine his game; while the goals aren’t there yet the consistent play is.  Add in some quality play from midfielder Graham Zusi and the rotating cast of starters, and this team can score with anyone.  Even the threat of their offense is dangerous, as both goals last night came from Columbus defensive mistakes under pressure.  The first was a penalty after Robbie Rogers took down C.J. Sapong in the box, the second was a Julius James own-goal after a throw-in.

But the biggest key to the KC ascent has been their defensive improvement.  The team that went from allowing over two goals a game to running a streak of late blown leads has now settled into a pretty good team defensively.  They have allowed 11 goals in their last 10 games after giving up 28 in their first 21.  The starting back four last night had an average age of 24, which while not terribly young was still somewhat inexperienced.  However, two players that have really helped defensively are keeper Jimmy Nielsen and centerback/midfielder Julio Cesar.  Both are veterans with years of international experience who are providing veteran leadership to the club.  While their defense is still not up to par with some of the elite MLS teams, it has improved to their point where it is no longer an eye-closing liability.

Outside factors also have played into Kansas City’s rise, the biggest being their obvious home field advantage.  After playing the first ten games of the season on the road, Sporting KC has gone 8-2-6 at home.  Their field is beautiful and creates a definite home field advantage, which gives the team a boost.  They also are benefiting from an Eastern Conference with no dominant team which of course has both allowed them to overcome early season struggles and grab needed points (like they did last night).

Looking ahead, can Kansas City keep this up?  Their schedule sets up nicely to allow them to control their own destiny: they play an inconsistent San Jose team on the road this weekend, then host New York and travel to DC, both of whom are chasing them.  New York’s away record (2-4-9) and DC’s home record (4-3-7) bode well for them.  However, Kansas City may have set themselves up for a late stumble, scheduling a friendly against CD Guadalajara on October 12, three days before the Red Bulls match-up.  Regardless, Kansas City is hot right now and securing the Eastern Conference crown is not only a possibility, but maybe even likely.

It’s good to be home.

The MLS cup is up for grabs

During the 2010 MLS Cup game, Commissioner Don Garber went on the ESPN halftime show to answer some questions about the state of the league.  The major issue circulating in the media was the playoff structure – a team from Colorado had just been named the Eastern Conference champion and, with two more teams entering the league next year, fewer than half of the teams playing in MLS would qualify for the playoffs under the existing format.  Garber announced that MLS would change the playoff system for the upcoming year to reflect the criticism coming from U.S. soccer fans and to ensure what had happened during the 2010 playoffs (i.e., a West Coast team winning the Eastern Conference) would not happen again.

In February, the playoff plan was finally announced.  The top three finishers in each conference would get into the playoffs as seeded teams, while the four non-seeded teams with the highest number of points would make the wildcard round.  After those four teams played each other, they would become the fourth seeds in each conference and the playoffs would proceed as 1 v. 4 and 2 v. 3 in each conference, with at most one of the four teams coming from outside the conference.  The chances of a Colorado-type run became that much harder, according to MLS’s thinking, but it did require that the number of teams making the playoffs to exceed 50%.

The decision was roundly criticized, including on this website.  What kind of league has over half of its teams make the playoffs?  Was MLS serious, or a CYO league?  And what happens if a strong team like Real Salt Lake is one of the wild cards and gets placed in the Eastern Conference playoffs?  Then it is 2009 all over again.

However, with mere weeks left in the regular season, the new playoff structure is looking quite brilliant. As it stands, there are two Eastern and two Western conference teams in the wild card if the season ended today.  Of course that is faulty analysis, as the teams have yet to play the same number of games.  However, the reality is that almost every fan base has a reason to root hard for its team in the closing weeks.  Realistically Vancouver is not in the playoff race but mathematically they are only eleven points (or four victories) back from the final playoff spot, with eight games to play.  More realistically, teams like DC United, Portland, and Chivas USA are definitely in the playoff race despite the late stage of the season.  That means 13 of 18 teams are in the playoff race and can certainly tell their fans they have a shot at postseason play.  Compare this to Major League Baseball, where at roughly the same point in the schedule about 15 of the thirty teams are arguably in the playoff race, although the actual number of real competitors is less.  New York Mets fans have had no reason to see their team play since June.

This is especially beneficial to the weaker Eastern Conference.  In a single table, first-place Columbus would sit fifth and second-place Kansas City would be sixth.  Instead, both are sitting in prime position to make the playoffs.  The Chicago Fire, a team that has been mired around last place for most of the season and is the record-holder for most MLS draws, can get hot over the next six weeks and play their way into a playoff berth; that’s a pretty good reason to remain interested in your team if you’re a fan.  Even a team like DC United now has a crowd draw; they can with a straight face tell fans that the upcoming home games against Chivas USA and Portland are critical to make the playoffs.

The Western Conference race is even more intriguing, as playoff positioning is critical in the conference.  As it stands, Seattle and Dallas would face off in the Western Conference semifinals; as the season progresses does it make more sense for Dallas if it is out of the Supporter’s Shield race to drop into fourth in the conference and enter the wild card round, where you could play a Philadelphia Union and Columbus Crew, for example, instead of a Seattle Sounders?  In addition, teams like Colorado and Real Salt Lake, who have struggled this year but are arguably among the most talented in the league, still have a chance to qualify as wild cards if they stumble down the stretch and have a chance to prove themselves in the playoffs.

In short, I think the excitement of an expanded playoff race may force us to rethink the stupidity of a ten-team playoff race.  Maybe, just maybe, MLS knew what it was doing.