There has been some talk lately about how the USMNT has regressed from its best teams of the past decade – that a lack of veteran leadership has made this team shakier and that Bob Bradley is making do with a hand full of poor cards.  I don’t believe that to be the case.  The current US team has as much potential as the 2002 World Cup quarterfinalists, and if they can catch some of the same breaks as that 2002 team, they can go just as far if not farther.

To make my point, let’s compare the 2002 team that took the field for its greatest World Cup victory (2-0 win over Mexico) against the team that took the field this summer in South Africa in its greatest victory (2-0 vs Spain).  Before we do the apples to apples comparison, a couple of global comparisons:

• The 2002 team finished the World Cup Final with 2 wins, 2 losses and a draw.  The 2009 finished the Confederations Cup with 2 wins and 3 losses, including two losses to Brazil.  Neither record was all that stellar.
• Both teams upset a top 5 team (Portugal in 2002 and Spain in 2009).
• Both teams were really lucky to advance out of group play.  The 2002 team advanced because, despite their loss to Poland, an already-through South Korea did them a huge favor by beating Portugal.  Similarly, the 2009 team got through because Brazil was nice enough to beat Italy by three goals.

Let’s look at the players:

Goalie – 2002 Friedel vs. 2009 Howard.  A wash.  Two great goalies who had the ability to get super hot during a tournament, and did.  They have both played overseas with good clubs in great leagues, and each US team felt relieved to have that type of quality between the pipes.

Back Line – 2002 Berhalter, Sanneh Pope and Mastroeni vs 2009 Spector, Onyewu, DeMerit and Bocanegra.  You have to give the edge to the 2009 line.  As professionals, the entire 2009 back line has spent most or all of their careers in Europe and have played more minutes at a higher level than the 2002 line.  Pope was a stalwart leader, but no less than Gooch is one today.  Both lines played with heart, but DeMerit, Spector and Bocanegra each had a season or longer trying to keep the Henry’s Rooney’s, Torres’ and Ronaldo’s of the world from scoring.

Midfield – 2002 Lewis, Reyna, O’Brien and Donovan vs 2009 Dempsey, Bradley, Clark and Donovan.  On the wings, the 2009 team is better, and in the middle, the 2002 team was far better.  The 2009 Donovan is a much better player than the 2002 version – a better dribbler, passer and finisher – and is probably operating at the height of his powers right now.  Similarly, I would pick Dempsey over Lewis any day.  Lewis is quicker and a better crosser, but Dempsey is a more complete player who can hold the ball, create and score.  On the other hand, Reyna and O’Brien were the perfect match – O’Brien’s creativity and Reyna’s toughness were as ideal as the US could hope for, and while Bradley and Clark may be there one day (especially Bradley), they are not there yet.  Overall, I would give the slight edge to the 2002 team, but it is not a slam dunk.

Striker – 2002 McBride and Wolf vs 2009 Altidore and Davies.  Despite my affection for McBride, you have to give this one to the 2009 team.  Altidore and Davies are that strength and speed combination that can unbalance their opponents.  McBride was a scrapper and great in the air, but the McBride/Wolf combination is a step behind the 2009 combination.

Overall, I would give the edge to the 2009 team, but my larger point is that it is a mistake to think that Bruce Arena was dealt and inside straight while Bradley has nothing but bum cards.  Bradley has every opportunity to do as well as any US team has ever done.

How far can this team go?  Nobody will favor them to go far or, depending on who is in their bracket, even get out of their group.  However, the US is good enough to do what plenty of mid-level teams have done in the past – catch some breaks, have a goalie get NASA hot, meet some opponents who are underperforming, and progress pretty far in the competition.  In a knock-out tournament, anything can happen, and the US is good enough to make the most of whatever fortune they happen to stumble across.

Who is the real target demographic of professional soccer in the U.S.? Is it Soccer Moms?  Is it Soccer players?  Is it Latino people?

Sure, Soccer Moms, Latinos and Soccer players make up some of the peripheral targets, but who makes up the core target?

One U.S. pro soccer fan thinks he’s the core target demo.  He’s 41 and 1/2 years old and had been a consistent fan of the big 3, football, basketball and baseball his whole life, until recently.  As a new Soccer fan and not having been a soccer player for more than 20 years, he watches snippets of world soccer leagues, but does not go out of his way to find them.  He doesn’t have Fox Soccer Channel to watch at home, though he wonders what life would be like with it.  He doesn’t own a soccer scarf and has no plans to purchase one.   

He supports Obama and likes to talk politics, but does not consider himself a Republican or Democrat.  He doesn’t tweet yet, but has recently investigated Facebook as a possible hobby.  He likes Spanish music a lot, but does not like watching American Idol or Dancing with the Stars.  He has attended one women’s Roller Derby and one Lucha Libre and only watches short stints of MMA, but he is ready to watch American Soccer every night of the week.

He only glances briefly at NASCAR, but loved Talladega Nights with Will Ferrell.  He wants to know a little more about Lacrosse and Cricket, but not too much.  He likes to watch and play Tennis a lot, but only can take small doses of watching or playing golf.  He likes to spend time with his wife and kid and wishes he had season tickets for a professional soccer team in his area.

He likes to travel, but does not like to get too involved in popular culture.  He is college educated, but thinks college is overrated.  He likes movies based on a true story, but really liked ‘Oh Brother, Where art Thou?.’  More than anything, he is really sick and tired of the big 3 sports and is trying to wean himself off of them.

He refuses to succumb to the word ‘pitch’ to replace the word ‘field’ and still hasn’t seen ‘Bend it Like Beckham’, but he did really enjoy the documentary on the NASL Cosmos, even though he’s not old enough to remember too much about the league.  He also refuses to succumb to the abbreviation FC or nicknames like Chivas and Real, which seem foreign and pretentious.  He’s looking forward to an old name coming back, Rowdies.  He gets confused by all the different cup competitions and would rather see a longer regular season of professional U.S. Soccer.

His socioecomoic status is middle class, but he relates well to all classes; middle, middle-upper, middle-lower, upper and lower.  He lives in an apartment and his wife keeps pushing him to buy a house.  His work fluctuates, which is another reason he needs a stable, semi-daily American Soccer league, so he can get away from all of his work problems. 

Above all, he considers himself a U.S. sports fan, who deals daily with his disenchantment for baseball, football and basketball.  He looks forward to the day he can go to a franchise restaurant where the volume is up on a U.S. pro Soccer league match like it sometimes is on the big 3.

The most popular reason that U.S. sports fans give for not watching soccer is its lack of scoring.  In order to attract more fans, a professional soccer league in the U.S. must, above all things, try to create more offense. 

Though many fans of the sport appreciate the skills, the passing, the midfield game and all the other aspects that make soccer ‘the beautiful game’, in the end, a league can not have success unless it concentrates on giving sports fans the opportunity to see more goals.  This is soccer’s reality and its dilemma in the U.S. 

For soccer purists and enthusiasts, a scoreless game late in the 2nd half is dramatic, tense and edge of the seat entertainment.  But, in order for U.S. sports fans to have similar feelings, they must first experience the offensive passion of the game. 

Fans will only get acclimated after seeing lots and lots of scoring.  After fans have been acclimated to soccer in all its wonder and glory, they too will find the awesome feeling of waiting for that first goal that doesn’t happen till extra time of the 2nd half. 

The average score for the other major team spectator sports are all higher.  Basketball is the exception because scoring happens frequently minute to minute.  But, for the other three, scoring is not elusive and is somewhat regular in its occurrence.  In baseball, runs are scored at more than 8 a game.  In hockey, goals are close to 6 a game.

Of all the team spectator sports, football (American) is the most interesting to analyze because of its unique system for scoring.  An average professional football game scores between 40 to 42 points.  Because an extra point after a touchdown is hardly ever missed and safeties in football are rarely seen, it is important to calculate exactly what fans are witnessing.  By using a formula that considers 1 point for a touchdown and half a point for a field goal, football is producing 6 points per game.   

Professional soccer around the world is averaging between 2-3 goals per game.  The American sports fans will never accept only 2-3 goals per game as an average.  Scoring must increase in order to get U.S. sports fans to the soccer dinner table.  According to how other major spectator sports in the U.S. are functioning, it appears that 5-7 goals a game is necessary to get the attention needed in order to be mainstream and part of the professional sports landscape in America.