Let me step back from my normal neutral MLS observer/blogger and enter fan mode for a few minutes.  I think this is the best way to analyze the Ben Olsen hiring.

As a DC United supporter, I am ecstatic that Ben Olsen is the new head coach of the club.  His resume as a DC United player is exemplary and he has been with the Black and Red through good times and bad.  He was there when RFK was a good soccer venue and now when it is a disgrace.  He has won MLS Cups and seen the worst MLS club in history up-close.  Throughout it all he has been a leader and a revered part of the organization.  I spoke with a fellow DC United fan today and he was beyond happy for the hiring because he is a long-time Olsen fan.  I thought it interesting that the reaction tends to be just that: “I love Ben Olsen.”  The emotional aspect of his hiring is that he is one of us, and he has achieved a dream job just a year after leaving the pitch as a player.  In that aspect, this is a great hiring and one the fans can support.

But when you set the heart aside and begin to analyze this with your head, this quote about Olsen as a head coach jumps to mind:

That lengthy quote analyzing the new head coach of DC United was made by his boss, Kevin Payne, days after the worst season in DC United history was finished.  Olsen was the interim head coach and his record was eerily similar to the man he replaced in terms of win percentage.  I don’t think many people disagreed at the time with Payne that the now-youngest coach in MLS history was not ready to take on the top job.

Yet here he was today in DC all smiles with the DC United leadership after being hired for a job he wanted but didn’t expect to get.  We know from The Washington Post that DC United interviewed about seven candidates, including Lucien Favre (a bad word in DC today) who was moderately successful in Bundesliga.  Most of the candidates were MLS assistants, and I suspect DC United reached out to a few college coaches.  But none of the seven were the fit that Ben Olsen was, according to the team.  To put this in perspective, in November 2009 Ben Olsen was on the pitch as a player.  One year later, he is the head coach after spending less than a year as an assistant.  Yet he is a better fit for the club than these seven other candidates.  Again, emotionally this is exciting for DC fans, but logically it makes no sense or suggests an untold storyline, especially since Olsen was initially told he would not be considered for the head job!

As I mentioned in another post on this subject, DC United is at a crossroads.  The future is unsettled but the past is known – the once glorious franchise has reached a nadir, and all the people in charge of running the team have returned.  The interim (now permanent) head coach, the team president, general manager, and owner will all be the same next year.  And this is not Olsen’s fault, nor do I blame him for saying yes when offered.  However the move looks to outsiders and cynics as a cost-saving, desperation move.

With all my heart I hope Ben Olsen succeeds and leads DC United back into the playoffs.  But I hope my heart is right and my head is wrong.

SUMmer of Soccer Continues

The ‘Summer of Soccer’ which began on June 20, rolls on. After this past weekend, 41 events, including 15 doubleheaders comprising 56 matches have drawn 1,306,902, for an average of 31,876.

Since my last post on the SUMmer of Soccer, the big guns were on display and the attendances reflect that. Here’s how the events fared …

More ch-ching for Soccer United Marketing(SUM). This was the first year of the 3 year agreement between Barcelona and SUM. They’ll return next summer, especially given the report that they took home over $8.5 million for their little USA preseason excursion.

Hello! Barca and the Galaxy pack the Rose Bowl. SUM has US marketing agreements with both Barca and Chivas; must have been some payday. Hopefully some of it will make it to the players in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement(CBA).

Gold Cup Total Attendance

World Football Challenge

SuperLiga Final Totals

Congestion Eases Significantly, But Not for All

Although they would have preferred winning, Chicago must be glad that SuperLiga is over. They are poised for a strong finish, having recovered from a 4 game losing skein with 3 wins and 2 draws before dropping a decision at Houston.

Don Garber has already stated that the SuperLiga will be back in 2010, a World Cup year. It’s a sure indication that live attendance and wide distribution of English language coverage in the US are irrelevant. It demonstrates where the real money comes from; sponsorships and Spanish language TV. SuperLiga in August or September next year?

Both teams played on July 25th. DCU had a CONCACAF Champions league game on July 28, an MLS game on August 1, a CONCACAF Champions league game on August 4, Real Madrid on August 9, back to league play on the 15th, and having advanced in the CONCACAF Champions League, a group phase CCL game on August 18, back to league play on August 22 and then game 2 of the group phase of the CCL on August 25 and back to MLS on August 29. DCU’s schedule remains busy after the Open final with league matches on Sept 5, 8 and 12. That will make 14 matches in 50 days, and average of one match every 3.6 days for seven weeks.

DCU has earned only 16 of 39 points and with a weaker Eastern Conference are in the thick of a playoff race. As noted, DCU advanced in the CONCACAF Champions League with its preliminary win and will play on August 18 and 25, certainly making them the club most susceptible to stumbling in either MLS, the CCL or both.

Seattle will play DC United in its bid to win its first trophy as an MLS club. Seattle played an exhibition v Barcelona on August 5, and an MLS match on August 8, with league games on the 15th, 20th, 23rd and 29th leading up to the Open final.

I’ve documented DCU’s schedule above. Houston and Columbus have it easier as they won’t have the Open to worry about nor did they need to qualify for the group stages.

Houston will have the tougher go. By the time they play there 2nd group phase CCL match against Arabe Unido in Panama, they will have played 6 matches in 21 days.

Columbus, whose 2nd group match will be away to Cruz Azul of Mexico, will have played 4 matches in 19 days, having the week of August 23rd off from league play.

Random Stats

86.58% of MLS games have been played on the weekend(Sat-Sun), leaving 13.42% of games played on weekdays. These numbers jibe with MLS’s attitude that weekday games lose too much revenue for clubs. In an earlier post, I think I disproved that theory with the caveat that creative marketing is the key to maintaining decent gate receipts for weekday matches.

No team is averging 2 goals per game, for or against. DC United top the offensive chart with 1.70 goals for but are 13th in defense, allowing 1.60.

Of the 6 fifteen minute segments in a match, minutes 76-90 have seen the most goals scored. The end of the first half, minutes 30-45 is second highest in this category.

Chivas USA’s fall from top of the table to 8th can’t be blamed on their defense. They are allowing the 2nd fewest goals per game, 0.88, but their offense is 13th, scoring 1.12.

Once again, MLS executives prove they are not in tune with their product.  The Gold Cup provided the perfect opportunity for MLS to expand their fan base.  Collaboration with CONCACAF representatives could have brought doubleheaders featuring one MLS game and one Gold Cup game from the first game through to the final (This year’s format does provide doubleheaders, two Gold Cup games/one stadium, except for the final).  

A collaboration among organizations would have allowed for more stadiums to get an opportunity to host the Gold Cup, which in turn, allows more people overall to see live soccer action.  By spreading the wealth, Soccer gets more promotion and more exposure.

What this would have accomplished is good for both CONCACAF and for MLS.  By having an MLS game take place for fans who might not be familiar with the MLS product, there is a possibility of enhancing the significance of the CONCACAF Champions League.  Fans of different heritage would get the chance to see teams which may play in the Champions League.   

MLS would  have benefited by getting their product to their easiest fans to win over, soccer fans.  A game between Guadeloupe and Nicaragua in Reliant Stadium on the 9th of July with an MLS game as part of the attraction is a marketing wet dream for the Houston Dynamo.  

The biggest dilemma for the organizers of these events would have been which game becomes the headliner.  This is a problem you want to have.  Some may argue the MLS game may have more broad appeal than the Gold Cup game or visa versa.  Regardless, there are still two games to be played and to be enjoyed for fans. 

There’s also the possibility of marketing to the sports fan and getting them more heavily involved.  With 2 games to see, there’s a stronger likelihood they’ll see a great game and be pulled in more to soccer as an entertainment option.  (International doubleheaders tend to attract a specific audience already familiar with Soccer). 

Scheduling MLS games could have been made easier by getting all the teams involved during this 3 week period of 25 matches.  They could have scheduled just 25 MLS matches during this time. 

Among the 25 matches to be slotted to accompany Gold Cup matches, another brand could also fill the void.  With sufficient planning and anticipation from U.S. Soccer and CONCACAF, some U.S. Open Cup matches could have been included. 

It’s dissappointing this is not transpiring because it would have made for great theater and discussion for soccer fans.  It also seems that this idea would have garnered more national attention from ESPN.

News about the Arena Football League (AFL) not playing its 2009 season is unsettling and a surprise to many (at this time, statements from the league website are still evolving).  The league appeared to be in good shape.  Evidence suggested that the league was stabilizing.  For 8 home games, each of the 17 teams in 2008 (its 22nd season) averaged more than 12,000 people in attendance and ESPN shared a national platform with the league in its marketing efforts to attract new fans.

The league has benefited from American football’s fans thirst for more football.  Play is inventive, dynamic and intense according to many of its thousands of avid fans.  The AFL’s niche has been its ability to adapt an indoor playing surface the size of basketball and hockey arenas with the fever of American football fans.

The past season seemed to be a season to build upon for the AFL.  The news of the league having to take a year to reorganize in order to reestablish itself as more financially solvent (among other things) is disturbing.

The relevance of the news to MLS is how connected the 2 leagues are in what they are trying to attain and where they are positioned when it comes to the public’s taste for team spectator sports.  Neither is a mainstream league for American sports fans. They are peripheral leagues at best.

MLS, though, seems to have much more going for it as a potential mainstream American spectator sport than does the AFL.  Firstly, the AFL directly competes with the NFL due to the fact that many fans already get enough football excitement.  But most importantly, soccer is the beautiful game with its own strategies and skills that no other sport can come close to imitating.

MLS should pay close attention to what is happening with the AFL to learn from their mistakes.  The AFL has survived mostly due to its entertainment value, but it is failing according to expectations because it has already peaked.  The AFL says that its version of the minor leagues, AFL2 will continue its operations for 2009.  The AFL should accept the fact that it will always be a peripheral sport and never a mainstream one, and then maybe it will be able to turn a profit.

MLS must look at soccer’s entertainment value and decide what needs to be done to take it beyond the periphery and into mainstream. Taking over the 4th slot from hockey is a reasonable goal, but enhancements and changes in MLS must occur and they must get done quickly.

Players in the AFL agreed on pay cuts in order to try and save their league.  It shouldn’t have to get to this level. 

It will take planning and innovation by MLS league executives and officials to carry the league forward to reach the mainstream.  They must know their sport and they must know the expectations of sports fans.

The most popular reason that U.S. sports fans give for not watching soccer is its lack of scoring.  In order to attract more fans, a professional soccer league in the U.S. must, above all things, try to create more offense. 

Though many fans of the sport appreciate the skills, the passing, the midfield game and all the other aspects that make soccer ‘the beautiful game’, in the end, a league can not have success unless it concentrates on giving sports fans the opportunity to see more goals.  This is soccer’s reality and its dilemma in the U.S. 

For soccer purists and enthusiasts, a scoreless game late in the 2nd half is dramatic, tense and edge of the seat entertainment.  But, in order for U.S. sports fans to have similar feelings, they must first experience the offensive passion of the game. 

Fans will only get acclimated after seeing lots and lots of scoring.  After fans have been acclimated to soccer in all its wonder and glory, they too will find the awesome feeling of waiting for that first goal that doesn’t happen till extra time of the 2nd half. 

The average score for the other major team spectator sports are all higher.  Basketball is the exception because scoring happens frequently minute to minute.  But, for the other three, scoring is not elusive and is somewhat regular in its occurrence.  In baseball, runs are scored at more than 8 a game.  In hockey, goals are close to 6 a game.

Of all the team spectator sports, football (American) is the most interesting to analyze because of its unique system for scoring.  An average professional football game scores between 40 to 42 points.  Because an extra point after a touchdown is hardly ever missed and safeties in football are rarely seen, it is important to calculate exactly what fans are witnessing.  By using a formula that considers 1 point for a touchdown and half a point for a field goal, football is producing 6 points per game.   

Professional soccer around the world is averaging between 2-3 goals per game.  The American sports fans will never accept only 2-3 goals per game as an average.  Scoring must increase in order to get U.S. sports fans to the soccer dinner table.  According to how other major spectator sports in the U.S. are functioning, it appears that 5-7 goals a game is necessary to get the attention needed in order to be mainstream and part of the professional sports landscape in America.