After week 25 the numbers look like this…

Here are the attendance comparisons to 2008′s equal number of home games(175):

My disclaimer about the capacity calculations

Observations

Week 25′s 3 games drew under 10,200. New England was off -30% from its season average. FC Dallas pulled in barely over 10,200, but that’s good enough to be nearly 1,000 over its average. I’d say that’s scary, but FCD home support has been a disaster since game 2. The club hasn’t come close to matching opening day(15,905). Colorado was off 15.3% but that’s no different than their last home game There are lots of ways to explain the low numbers. A good one is that it was opening day for many college football teams. Then, there was this little match that the US Men played. As I mentioned last week, well, here read it yourself…

Well, what can you say? First the good: MLS scheduled only 3 games this coming weekend, which is a FIFA International calendar period. That surely minimized any potential conflict for many possible USMNT’ers who might be called into service for the upcoming World Cup qualifiers. In fact, for US players, only Conor Casey, on September 5th, stands to miss a match if he’s selected. Not the solution many fans want, which would be no MLS matches during FIFA International periods, but a lot better than having a full slate of games on the schedule. Now the WTF!: The USMNT game v El Salvador is at 8pm ET, the three MLS matches start at 7:30, 8:00 and 10:00 ET. Are you kidding me? Wait, it gets better. On Wednesday, Sep 9, the US travels to Trinidad and Tobago and will play at 7pm ET. MLS has ONE midweek match scheduled, on you guessed it, Wed the 9th. Not only that, it begins at 8:00pm ET. There are no words.

USSF President Sunil Gulati is also the President of Kraft Soccer, owner of the Revs, and even his team played on Saturday. What is wrong with this picture?

The 2005 match was v Mexico, played at Crew Stadium.

MLS Scoreboard

So How Are They Doing?

Four teams at 33 points. RSL holds the edge in goal differential, while DCU, unbeaten at home, will play 5 of its last 6 at RFK. But Chivas USA and the Revs each have two games in hand, which makes them favorites to overtake them. With 34 points in 24 games, Seattle is only slightly less vulnerable to being overtaken for a playoff position. Columbus is poised to overtake Houston for the Supporters’ Shield with its 2 games in hand.

Streaking

After week 24 the numbers look like this…

Here are the attendance comparisons to 2008′s equal number of home games(172):

My disclaimer about the capacity calculations

Observations

Week 24 games drew 16,148, despite poor crowds at New England, Colorado and the Meadowlands(rain). RSL kept its playoff hopes alive against Chivas USA in front of over 14,700 in their midweek clash. Seattle had its usual full house for fellow MLS 2.0 club Toronto. Rain from Hurricane Danny kept the gate under 8,000 in New England. KC had a near sellout for its match with RSL. Over 16,300 at Toyota Park were disappointed by the continued poor play of their club at home. LA had its first sellout of the season(they had 7 at this point last year). Under 11,000 turned out for the Rapids’ matchup with league leaders Houston. And it was a little worse at the Meadowlands for a replay of the 2008 MLS Cup Final(Ok keep your laughing under control).

The only thing that could have been better for MLS publicity would have been an earlier start time for the SuperClasico at the HDC. Natural rivals vying for a guaranteed spot in the playoffs(I don’t see Houston being overtaken), a sellout atmoshere, and Beckham scores the game winner late in the game.

In 2009, RBNY has been the poster boy for disaster on the field. Off the field, FC Dallas holds that honor. The only club averaging less than 10,000 per game, FCD has played 10 different opponents at home. It comes as no surprise that for 8 of them it’s been the lowest road attendance of the season. As a sidebar, 7 of the 15 teams are drawing more on the road than at home. Last year, 8 of the 14 teams had higher attendances on the road than at home.

Did you notice that 5 of the 8 games ended 1-0?

So How Are They Doing?

Games in hand will be critical. RSL and Seattle might be the most vulnerable to being overtaken for playoff positions. DCU, unbeaten at home, will play 5 of its last 7 at RFK. Columbus is poised to overtake Houston for the Supporters’ Shield with its 2 games in hand.

Streaking

SUMmer of Soccer Continues

The ‘Summer of Soccer’ which began on June 20, rolls on. After this past weekend, 41 events, including 15 doubleheaders comprising 56 matches have drawn 1,306,902, for an average of 31,876.

Since my last post on the SUMmer of Soccer, the big guns were on display and the attendances reflect that. Here’s how the events fared …

More ch-ching for Soccer United Marketing(SUM). This was the first year of the 3 year agreement between Barcelona and SUM. They’ll return next summer, especially given the report that they took home over $8.5 million for their little USA preseason excursion.

Hello! Barca and the Galaxy pack the Rose Bowl. SUM has US marketing agreements with both Barca and Chivas; must have been some payday. Hopefully some of it will make it to the players in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement(CBA).

Gold Cup Total Attendance

World Football Challenge

SuperLiga Final Totals

Congestion Eases Significantly, But Not for All

Although they would have preferred winning, Chicago must be glad that SuperLiga is over. They are poised for a strong finish, having recovered from a 4 game losing skein with 3 wins and 2 draws before dropping a decision at Houston.

Don Garber has already stated that the SuperLiga will be back in 2010, a World Cup year. It’s a sure indication that live attendance and wide distribution of English language coverage in the US are irrelevant. It demonstrates where the real money comes from; sponsorships and Spanish language TV. SuperLiga in August or September next year?

Both teams played on July 25th. DCU had a CONCACAF Champions league game on July 28, an MLS game on August 1, a CONCACAF Champions league game on August 4, Real Madrid on August 9, back to league play on the 15th, and having advanced in the CONCACAF Champions League, a group phase CCL game on August 18, back to league play on August 22 and then game 2 of the group phase of the CCL on August 25 and back to MLS on August 29. DCU’s schedule remains busy after the Open final with league matches on Sept 5, 8 and 12. That will make 14 matches in 50 days, and average of one match every 3.6 days for seven weeks.

DCU has earned only 16 of 39 points and with a weaker Eastern Conference are in the thick of a playoff race. As noted, DCU advanced in the CONCACAF Champions League with its preliminary win and will play on August 18 and 25, certainly making them the club most susceptible to stumbling in either MLS, the CCL or both.

Seattle will play DC United in its bid to win its first trophy as an MLS club. Seattle played an exhibition v Barcelona on August 5, and an MLS match on August 8, with league games on the 15th, 20th, 23rd and 29th leading up to the Open final.

I’ve documented DCU’s schedule above. Houston and Columbus have it easier as they won’t have the Open to worry about nor did they need to qualify for the group stages.

Houston will have the tougher go. By the time they play there 2nd group phase CCL match against Arabe Unido in Panama, they will have played 6 matches in 21 days.

Columbus, whose 2nd group match will be away to Cruz Azul of Mexico, will have played 4 matches in 19 days, having the week of August 23rd off from league play.

Random Stats

86.58% of MLS games have been played on the weekend(Sat-Sun), leaving 13.42% of games played on weekdays. These numbers jibe with MLS’s attitude that weekday games lose too much revenue for clubs. In an earlier post, I think I disproved that theory with the caveat that creative marketing is the key to maintaining decent gate receipts for weekday matches.

No team is averging 2 goals per game, for or against. DC United top the offensive chart with 1.70 goals for but are 13th in defense, allowing 1.60.

Of the 6 fifteen minute segments in a match, minutes 76-90 have seen the most goals scored. The end of the first half, minutes 30-45 is second highest in this category.

Chivas USA’s fall from top of the table to 8th can’t be blamed on their defense. They are allowing the 2nd fewest goals per game, 0.88, but their offense is 13th, scoring 1.12.

This year’s baseball season is shaping up to have more MLS cities in contention than in past years.  The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners are off to really good starts, and this is not good news for MLS.  Currently, both teams sit in first place of their respective divisions.  These two cities have drawn better at the gate than any other MLS teams, but will it continue if their baseball counterparts continue to position themselves for a playoff push?

In Toronto on Saturday, Soccer outdrew baseball.  According to MLS-daily.com’s attendance and YahooSports attendance figures for boxscores in baseball, Toronto FC had 19,998 and the Toronto Bluejays had 18,331.

The one city MLS need not worry about in baseball is Washington, D.C.  The Nationals are the worse team in baseball.  But on Saturday, they still outdrew arguably the proudest MLS team.  They drew 19,9950 to the United’s 14,225.  Go figure that one.

The biggest story in baseball so far has been the Los Angeles Dodgers.  They look like they might run away with the division.  If they do, ultimately, that could be better for the 2 LA soccer teams.  But, surely they will be a story to watch for Southern California sports fans this summer.  It also looks like the LA Angels will hang around to try and win the division as they have hung around pretty well for each of the last 10 years , either winning divisions or making it close. 

The Dodgers drew 47,000 Saturday, while the Galaxy drew 21,000.  Surely, the Galaxy would have done better head to head Saturday had Manny not signed that big contract, and had Beckham stuck to the plan. 

At Wrigley Field, the Cubs drew 40,000, probably to be expected, knowing the history there.  The Cubs are a decent team this year and they carry a more than 100 year relationship with sports.  Their drout makes them always the lovable loser and an interesting team when they win.  It would be better for the Fire, who drew 10,000 on Saturday, if the Cubs have a crappy season, but that’s not happening apparently.   

The Fire need to be compared head to head to the White Sox too, who also seem to be contending.  In fact, because of parity, it seems many MLS cities are competing in baseball this year, like the Astros and Rangers.  But, maybe they’ll sail out of contention as the year moves on. 

The Royals of Kansas City would definitely seem a likely candidate to sail out of contention, but it doesn’t help MLS or the Wiz that the Royals are having a decent season.  They have been bad for a long time, so when they are good, it seems an anomaly, and fans start to pay attention. 

One team who won’t fall out of contention this year is the Philadelphia Phillies, the defending champs.  They are riding a wave in which the core of the team is sticking around.  The Phillies have reestablished themselves with their fans via a new stadium and may make it rough on the newest expansion team for MLS next year. 

In Colorado, the Rockies seem to be in the decline, and it appears it will be a long season for their fans.  But, the Nuggets of the NBA are picking up the slack, pulling out John Elway of Arena Football League fame to announce their starting 5 in a crazed playoff atmosphere last night.  The hockey team had a bad year and the Broncos had an unusual year, so as the Rapids average 11,000 in attendance, is it maybe a result of too much sports for one town?  5 pro teams may be one too many. 

Colorado seems a good case for general managers from MLS to look to not schedule head to head against rival sports leagues. 

It seems it is best to hold back on any judgement on the Red Bulls as everyone awaits their new stadium, which looks appealing.  Next year will be interesting to see how they do head to head versus the Mets and Yankees.

With the release of the United Soccer Leagues 2009 D1 schedule and accompanying Fox Soccer Channel tv schedule, USL shows once again that MLS is not the only game in town.  USL proves again that it carries a lot of weight when it comes to professional soccer in the U.S.  The USL infrastructure is strong enough to continue to be a thorn in the side of MLS.  It has major partnerships with European clubs, its own youth and development leagues and a Women’s league.  

Unfortunately, the USL at the professional soccer level, has a lack of innovation and leadership.  There’s no backbone and no guts.  It has the same losing business model as MLS.  It suffers from an identity crisis, just as MLS does.

The key statistics to follow this year will be the same as it has been for every year that MLS and USL have been existence, attendance and television ratings.  The next significant key statistic to follow is how many goals are scored per game (Offense brings sports fans in the U.S.).

In order for one of the leagues to stand out and become mainstream, they must solve the puzzle.  It is the greatest sports conundrum in the history of modern American sports, why can’t soccer make it in America? 

The pot of gold is out there, it is buried at the end of the rainbow, but the rainbow is multi-layered and multi-dimensional.  MLS and USL will never be able to count on what’s happening with soccer leagues everywhere else around the world to be able to discover the treasure.  They must figure out how to market soccer, the beautiful game, to American sports fans and not just soccer purists and/or soccer enthusiasts.

The most interesting stories to follow from USL and MLS are its business dealings.  Both leagues are so lost in what direction they want to go.  There is intrigue involved at every corner of every new stadium being built, both the small ones and the bigger ones.  Sometimes, the strategies involved with play calling, coaching and watching games does not match the intrigue and strategies involved with which developing soccer areas of D2 and Premier of USL are next to breakout and become new soccer havens. 

Who will be this year’s Cleveland City? and What will be the next small city to emerge as having the label of a pro soccer city, like Austin?

To its credit, the USL’s D1 is hanging around.  Even as it struggles for its survival, it deserves to get attention when it makes news.  Today it made news and showed all of the U.S. soccer fans that it will maintain an appropriate schedule.  With its organizational strength, the USL is indicating a commitment to provide a high level of pro soccer for fans in North America and the Carribean to enjoy. 

USL and its teams have worked hard in recent years to gather business sponsorships and marketing parterships with major and minor companies.  It has also made tremendous leaps on the international stage and in the U.S. through its participation in sanctioned pro and open league tournaments. 

USL has earned a right to be mentioned in the same breath as MLS.  It’s too bad that what USL is inhaling is the same kind of poison that MLS is swallowing.  The lifespan of these leagues is hanging in the balance. 

USL is trying to put a veil over the real issues, just as MLS is doing.  New ideas must replace the stale ones if soccer wants the big piece of the sports action in the U.S.

News about the Arena Football League (AFL) not playing its 2009 season is unsettling and a surprise to many (at this time, statements from the league website are still evolving).  The league appeared to be in good shape.  Evidence suggested that the league was stabilizing.  For 8 home games, each of the 17 teams in 2008 (its 22nd season) averaged more than 12,000 people in attendance and ESPN shared a national platform with the league in its marketing efforts to attract new fans.

The league has benefited from American football’s fans thirst for more football.  Play is inventive, dynamic and intense according to many of its thousands of avid fans.  The AFL’s niche has been its ability to adapt an indoor playing surface the size of basketball and hockey arenas with the fever of American football fans.

The past season seemed to be a season to build upon for the AFL.  The news of the league having to take a year to reorganize in order to reestablish itself as more financially solvent (among other things) is disturbing.

The relevance of the news to MLS is how connected the 2 leagues are in what they are trying to attain and where they are positioned when it comes to the public’s taste for team spectator sports.  Neither is a mainstream league for American sports fans. They are peripheral leagues at best.

MLS, though, seems to have much more going for it as a potential mainstream American spectator sport than does the AFL.  Firstly, the AFL directly competes with the NFL due to the fact that many fans already get enough football excitement.  But most importantly, soccer is the beautiful game with its own strategies and skills that no other sport can come close to imitating.

MLS should pay close attention to what is happening with the AFL to learn from their mistakes.  The AFL has survived mostly due to its entertainment value, but it is failing according to expectations because it has already peaked.  The AFL says that its version of the minor leagues, AFL2 will continue its operations for 2009.  The AFL should accept the fact that it will always be a peripheral sport and never a mainstream one, and then maybe it will be able to turn a profit.

MLS must look at soccer’s entertainment value and decide what needs to be done to take it beyond the periphery and into mainstream. Taking over the 4th slot from hockey is a reasonable goal, but enhancements and changes in MLS must occur and they must get done quickly.

Players in the AFL agreed on pay cuts in order to try and save their league.  It shouldn’t have to get to this level. 

It will take planning and innovation by MLS league executives and officials to carry the league forward to reach the mainstream.  They must know their sport and they must know the expectations of sports fans.