The traditional home of Football Americana style has submitted a big to join Major League Soccer. Jeff Cooper a St Louis area lawyer who for years now has been pushing for MLS to come to the traditional home of the game in the United States submitted a big to join the league today. Given the sentiment involved I wish St Louis the best of luck. If any town has represented the history of this game and the brilliance of what we achieved without the spotlight of an interested media or public, it is St Louis. A franchise in St Louis would embody everything American Soccer has been through from the 1910’s till today. (Photo and article link courtesy of MLS Rumors)
However, St Louis is one of the smallest metropolitan areas applying for a new MLS team. Miami is at the top of the list and of course has its own soccer history. However questions about Miami linger because of the failure of the Fusion. However that failure had more to do with bad management than a bad market. Atlanta is also a massive metropolitan area, but the Atlanta Chiefs of the NASL was one of the least supported clubs in the league and despite significant investment in the stadium, the USL’s Atlanta Silverbacks lag behind such small market teams as Charleston and Rochester in attendance.
Here are the applicants for MLS expansion based on metro area population (2005 population)
Note: I do not use US Census Bureau numbers because they consistently change their criteria classification for metropolitan areas. These estimated numbers are from the Economist’s Intelligence Unit
1- Miami 5,420,000
2- Atlanta 4,160,000
3- Montreal 3,360,000
4- Vancouver 2,900,000
5- St Louis 2, 560,000
6- Portland 2,150,000
7- Las Vegas 1,850,000
Miami is the largest market in North America without an MLS team or expansion team (Philadelphia). However the previous failure of the league in south Florida has clouded the thinking of many pundits towards the area. I have my own thoughts on the subject that we’ll discuss at a later date, but I believe the Fusion was the worst run team in a poorly run league and that explains the failure in such a large market which is heavily ethnic as well. I was at today’s press event with FC Barcelona and the indication we were given was that Miami would like to begin play in 2010 not in 2011 as the other applicants desire. How this factors into the decision making is anyone’s guess but I do not see it hurting Miami.
Montreal is an interesting candidate. My sources had indicated the Saputo’s who run the USL Impact were souring on MLS due the $40 million franchise fee and the the success of the club in the CONCACAF Champions League. However, by submitting a bid, Montreal puts into serious jeopardy the plans USL-1 and Umbro (now owned by Nike) had for building the league. I had been told by a reliable source, that if USL was really getting some major investment, that Montreal would not bid and allow Vanocuver to become uncontested as the second Canadian MLS side.
More later on this subject.
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You forgot New York and yes the two biggest areas get the two teams.
New York and Miami.
Miami is a shoo in.
As you mention the league realizes that the Fusion failed because of bad managment not a bad market.
They were waiting on an investor to show up there and would be a shoo in.
This Bolivian guy has answered the call.
New York is getting a team for the city because the Red Bulls are a Jersey team that gets none of the ethnic fans in the city or long island. This is similar to Miami, whose previous team played outside the ethnic areas. The new team will be in Miami.
It’s a done deal unless MLS adds four teams.
New York and Miami.
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Nobody else has a chance in hell.
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The real question is if MLS expands to 20, which of the other cities have a chance? I say Portland first, Vancouver second. Relocate KC to St Louis, That's your 20 team league and let the other markets settle for USL.
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St. Louis would be great, but I'm not sold on their ownership yet. KC's ownership prevents a move unless they're stadium falls through.
MLS isn't stopping at 20. It's not an issue for at least 5 years but ultimately MLS will creep towards 30 teams just the "big 4".
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Miami is a clear front runner, but the questions about Miami will continue to dog the bid. We'll discuss this on the MLS Talk podcast this week.
Montreal's bid is very bad news for USL. In the next few days I'll post my thoughts on the future of USL should Vancouver, Atlanta, Miami, Montreal and Portland all end up as MLs markets in the next 5-7 years.
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Unless soccer becomes a lot more popular and MLS stops growing and thus there is a pent up demand for soccer in markets MLS is not serving (this is unlikely in the near future), I don't see USL becoming the "AFL" to MLS's "NFL".
"However questions about Miami linger because of the failure of the Fusion. However that failure had more to do with bad management than a bad market."
Boy is that ever true. Due to the MLS contraction of 2002 it has become commonly accepted "wisdom" that there's something wrong with Tampa and Miami, that pro soccer doesn't work in Florida, "they tried it and it failed", yada yada yada. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Due to the size of the Miami market, and the solidity of the FC Barcelona reputation, I think Miami is almost certain to get an expansion team. My second favorite would be St. Louis; sure they are a small market but they have been at this MLS expansion bidding process for a long time now and I have a hunch that they've gotten it right this time. St. Louis will be a good addition to MLS for geographical and historical reasons; my only minor quibble is the location of the stadium is not ideal (urban stadia are preferable, usually), but that may not be an issue.
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Personally, I'm still stumping for Montreal and Vancouver (regardless of the rumour that MTL isn't that interested after all.
Both have dedicated Soccer Specific Stadia, either now or imminently,
both have rich, successful soccer histories (and present situations, for that matter)
both are in a good position to make a quick transition to MLS and be instantly useful sides.
ALL of the candidates, with the exception of Ottawa, are in similar-sized urban markets (13 -33 in NA - OTT is 67th. Columbus is 203, BTW.)
If Miami has Barcelona's endorsement, they can write their own ticket. Even though they've blown a chance already and their weather could wreak havoc on either the schedule or quality of play.
St. Louis is a heartland football location, which made me even more surprised when I was there last summer and couldn't find a game. No pro clubs? Maybe even a PDL side?
Altanta is a sh**hole. The less said about the place, the better.
Portland is beautiful, has a football history, and a natural rivalry with Seattle. If they can get some of that's town's massive money (and a SSS) on side, they could jump to the top of the queue.
Ottawa is a mistake. it's a Bureaucrat's city, not a fan's city. Despite all that government cash, it won't draw fans.
My preferred order:
Montreal
Vancouver
Portland
St. Louis
Miami
The other two don't even deserve 6th or 7th place, they're so low on my list.
SB
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I do not believe MLS can add another Canadian club without some serious politicing which may include limiting the number of teams in the league at 18, something we know MLS probably cannot financially afford.
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* have a National Hockey League that always was international,
*used to have an International Hockey League that never stepped foot outside the United states,
* Have an American Hockey League that hosted Canadian teams for over 50 years, and continues to do so,
*Have a professional baseball set up where the first league to go international was the "National League", and the only one that remains international is the "American League"
* Have a "National" Basketball Association that hosts teams in another country.
* the major three sports declare their winners "world champions" despite the fact there are other leagues worldwide.
So, it appears that the REAL reason why some people have a problem with the term "North American league" is due to the fact that we're used to ill-fitting language to describe our leagues over here. When someone actually gets it right, it sticks out like a sore thumb.
Quite frankly, with the exception of Ottawa, the Canadian cities that have thrown their hat in the ring are proven football communities with proven, stable ownership and soccer specific, self-regulated stadia. What American franchise bid can claim the same? Why wouldn't MLS appreciate those qualities when it comes time to pick new franchises for a very fragile league? Can MLS afford to make a mistake and suffer another contraction or relocation? The NHL is pumping money hand over fist to misplaced franchises in order to keep them where they are because relocation reflects poorly on the entire entity; contraction looks totally bush league.
Truth be told, the NHL can't afford to keep doing this. The MLS can't afford to even start doing it.
Canada can't support a league. Three clubs in MLS is no proof that they could make their own league to play in. If anything, it proves the contrary. MLS and Canada are a very good fit. Why deny it?
SB
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Maybe MLS looks long and hard at Canadian cities because, as I've pointed out before, the Canadian cities in question are excellent candidates. If smaller areas can't compete with entering the league, how are they supposed to contribute to the overall health of the league once they're in?
If St. Louis can get a big company like Anheuser Busch, or Atlanta gets Coca-Cola behind them and promise a SSS, they will jump well up the queue, just like Miami will if these Barcelona rumours are true. Like all sports these days (especially these days, with economic instability what it is,) soccer is not the domain of the millionaires. it's the domain of the billionaires. Ironically, is this "bait and switch" price escalation that is pushing former "sure things" like Montreal away from the negotiating table. and actually opening the door a little more for places like St. Louis and Atlanta.
***The CSA not having control over a league is not a bad thing at all! I don't see the benefits in that regard.
As it stands, TFC on its own, has:
* put together an academy to develop youth players to a professional level,
*generated fan interest and a logical conclusion for any serious player to aspire to in the Greater Toronto Area,
*generated funds for local football programs (indirectly as much as directly, granted), *found big league ownership to make it happen properly, and
*has proven that soccer is a legitimate sport this neck of the woods, with 20K fans at every home game.
All in under 2 years Those are three things the CSA hasn't come close to doing in 95 year of existence.
Back in the early 90's the CSA was offered a proposal which, for their part, all they had to do was raise youth soccer fees by 1$ per kid across the country to ensure the survival of the CSL. They refused and killed it in the process.
Who wants the CSA in the equation?
SB
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The precedent of allowing TFC into MLS opened a can of worms that cannot be put back in place.
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TFC is the model franchise of MLS. As much as you two curmudgeons abhor anything not American, the Seattle boys made it clear that they're taking as many pages out of TFC's playbook as they can.
It appears that everyone with a penny in the game sees the Canadian MLS entity model as teh key to survival and success in the US sports market.
the Lynx are in the PDL now. Even without a bigger fish in town, they couldn't draw flies to shit. It made no sense to put another team in a market that wasn't yielding for the USL in the first place. Besides, why would USL want to go head to head with a league that is officially labelled as superior?
AS for Eric's hypothetical question about the Gals leaving for the Mexican league, it totally misses the mark. Toronto's USL club was already in an international league. The Lynx NEVER existed in a world where they only played Canadian clubs. As a matter of fact, the history of top tier professional soccer in Toronto has only a small time frame when American opposition weren't part of their picture . Toronto football fans traded tier two American teams for Tier one American teams. the Galaxy hypothesis is completely flawed.
Canadian clubs are cornerstones of the top two tiers of football in this part of the world. You've had the better part of 40 years to come to grips with this.
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I believe the other cities considered will likely all be Canadian. Portland needs to come up with money to renovate/expand PGE, and St Louis could be a victim of these rough economic times.
Face it: MLS is only around because of Mexican and Canadian interests. Mexican national team friendlies and FMF vs MLS games generate a lot more revenue for the league than just about anything. Now TFC is the model franchise not only drawing big crowds but setting up a youth academy, playing in the central city, attracting the type of players from England that would typically scoff at MLS and simply being a better more talented team despite the restrictions MLS places on the team since they are Canadian. Had TFC not been essentially robbed of 5 points in two games against Dallas, TFC is a lock for the playoffs right now.